754
FXCA20 KWBC 061656
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1156 AM EST WED DEC 06 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 06 DEC 2023 AT 1650 UTC: THE BUILDING OF A POLAR
RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN USA IS FAVORING THE STRENGTHENING OF
NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS
AIDING WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE FRONT. ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...CAYMAN ISLANDS...ISLAS DE LA
BAHIA...CENTRAL GUATEMALA INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVE TO THE CHIVELA
PASS AND CENTRAL MEXICO. ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA...ISLAS DE LA
BAHIA...NORTHWEST HONDURAS...CENTRAL GUATEMALA. BY FRIDAY EVENING
EXPECT IT ACROSS INAGUA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS...SOUTHEAST
CUBA...ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD...YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SHEAR LINE IS ALSO
ORGANIZING. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT AN ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...15N 80W. ON THURSDAY EXPECTING ALONG THE MONA
PASSAGE...BARAHINA...INTO NORTHEAST NICARAGUA. ON FRIDAY EVENING
EXPECT IT ALONG CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA INTO NORTHERN BELIZE.
INITIALLY...ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ/NORTHERN OAXACA...ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTES EVENT...WILL
TRIGGER 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. FRONTAL CONVECTION IN
ISLAS DE LA BAHIA/NORTHWEST HONDURAS/EASTERN GUATEMALA WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALSO IN
BELIZE/NORTHERN GUATEMALA/TABASCO/CHIAPAS WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM...AS NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS INTERACT WITH TERRAIN.
IN THE GREATER ANTILLES AND BAHAMAS EXPECT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION
DUE TO LIMITED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LINGERING IN THE GREATER ANTILLES. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN CENTRAL
GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN BELIZE. IN NORTH-CENTRAL HONDURAS AND ISLAS
DE LA BAHIA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN FRONTAL CONVECTION. THE
SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST
NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS. IN THE GREATER ANTILLES...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND
IN NORTHEAST HAMAICA. SHEAR LINE CONVECTION WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
15MM IN PUERTO RICO. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN THE
DOMININCAN REPUBLIC...WHILE IN NORTHERN HAITI AND IN SOUTHEAST
CUBA...ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AND IN BELIZE/QUINTANA ROO.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...HAS INDUCED A FEW PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLY TRADES
AND HAS MODULATED THE ITCZ NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER
TROUGH...INDUCED PERTURBATION...AND THE MOIST PLUME ENTERING THE
CARIBBEAN...TO FAVOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AND NORTHEAST VENEZUELA. ON
THUSDAY EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS DEVELOPING FROM NORTHEAST VENEZUELA
THROUGH THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE
FRENCH ANTILLES.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED IN THE
AMAZON BASIN TO THE SOUTH OF 04N AND WEST OF 60W...WHERE SCATTERED
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND PRECIBITABLE VALUES EXCEED 50MM. WESTERN
COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST ECUADOR WILL ALSO REMAIN SEASONALLY ACTIVE
AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FAVORS SCATTERED CONVECTION ON A DAILY
BASIS. A DECREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL FAVOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE CYCLE. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM FROM CENTRAL ECUADOR INTO NORTHWEST COLOMBIA.
THIS DECREASES TO MAXIMA OF 15-25MM FROM CENTRAL ECUADOR INTO THE
EJE CAFETERO BY FRIDAY.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
NONE
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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