519
FXUS01 KWBC 070805
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
305 AM EST THU DEC 07 2023
VALID 12Z THU DEC 07 2023 - 12Z SAT DEC 09 2023
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FOR NOW...
...COLD, UNSETTLED WEATHER TO SHIFT INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND PLAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH
FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
AFTER A PROLIFIC SERIES OF ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS PRODUCED OVER 9
INCHES OF RAINFALL ATOP COASTAL WASHINGTON AND OREGON, A BRIEF
REPRIEVE FROM THE FIRE HOSE IS EXPECTED TO SET IN TODAY ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BRIEFLY
CUTS OFF MUCH OF THE MOIST PACIFIC FLOW INTO THE NORTHWEST. EVEN
SO, A LINGERING FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WILL ENSURE LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AND ELEVATION SNOW REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FORTUNATELY, NO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WITH TODAY'S ACTIVITY, AND ALL
OF THE FLOOD WARNINGS AND WATCHES IN THE REGION ARE SET TO EXPIRE
BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST. AS THE SYSTEM SPREADS
EAST, AN INFLUX OF COLDER CONTINENTAL AIR THE INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN PLUMMETING SNOW LEVELS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL BEGINNING TODAY ATOP PORTIONS OF
THE CASCADES, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND SIERRA MADRE, WHERE SCATTERED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN-HIGH PLAINS COULD ALSO SEE MODERATELY IMPACTFUL WINTER
WEATHER BEGINNING LATER TODAY INTO TOMORROW, OWING PRIMARILY TO
BLOWING SNOWFALL (WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED) BEHIND A DEEPENING
LOW-PRESSURE CENTER LIFTING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL U.S, EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE IN WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THE
LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG COLD FRONT TRACK SOUTH AND EAST.
AHEAD OF THE SWEEPING COLD FRONT, A VAST PORTION OF THE HEARTLAND
WILL START WARMER AND DRIER THROUGH FRIDAY. IN FACT, DAILY HIGHS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
70S ACROSS KANSAS, WHICH IS AROUND 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY DECEMBER CLIMATOLOGY. THE WARMEST DAY
LIKELY REMAINS TODAY, WHERE SEVERAL DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS
COULD BE BROKEN THROUGHOUT THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE SET TO RETURN AS
THE COLD AIR SWEEPS DOWN THE PLAINS, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE ROCKIES,
AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EVEN FURTHER EAST, SPC IS ALSO
MONITORING AN AREA OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THIS SATURDAY ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS UNSTABLE GULF OF MEXICO AIR RETURNS NORTH
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
ASHERMAN/CAMPBELL
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