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FXCA20 KWBC 071241
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
740 AM EST THU DEC 07 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI DEC 07/12UTC:
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TODAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
CAUSE PATCHES OF DRY AIR AS WELL AS HIGHER MOISTURE TO MOVE
THROUGH PR/USVI OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...MOISTURE WILL BE AT ITS LOWEST ON FRIDAY...BUT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND AT ITS HIGHEST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO VERY
EARLY MONDAY. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WILL CORRELATE
WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SINCE THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE EXPECTED THAT WOULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY OR FORCING THAT
WOULD CAUSE HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER THE AREA. THE EGDI ALGORITHM DOES
NOT INDICATE ANY RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA EXCEPT A VERY
SLIGHT RISK OF SHALLOW CONVECTION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH IS
ALSO WHEN THE HIGHEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. THE TWIN ALGORITHM
INDICATES A TRADE WIND INVERSION PERSISTING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT AROUND THE 800-850MB
LEVEL...HOWEVER. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN PR AND PORTIONS OF THE
USVI...THOUGH THE LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY MAY ALLOW SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF
PR...AND THEREFORE SOME RAIN IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THOSE SECTORS.
A SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS...CAUSING THE LIGHT WINDS TODAY. A SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE
TODAY...PERSISTING OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID
LEVELS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT RIDGE...WHICH WILL
PROMOTE STABILITY AND MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPECTED TRADE
WIND INVERSION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A QUICK UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH MAY HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON
SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION DURING THE TIME OF HIGHEST MOISTURE.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
DRIEST...WHILE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WOULD BE THE RAINIEST FOR
NORTHEASTERN PR. CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN PR WOULD RECEIVE MOST OF
THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE USVI IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY...THOUGH ALSO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WOULD BE
THE WETTEST. THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO WOULD HAVE AROUND 2 INCHES OF
RAIN. THE USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 0.50 AND
0.75 INCHES. CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR PR IS FORECAST MAX VALUES OF
0.50 TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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