440
FXCA20 KWBC 081235
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
734 AM EST FRI DEC 08 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI DEC 08/12UTC:
IN THE MID-LEVELS...A RIDGE CENTERS OVER HAITI AND EXTENDS FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS IS ENHANCING
THE TRADE WIND CAP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN LIMITING THE
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE REGION. THE SAN JUAN 00
UTC SOUNDINGS SHOWS A STRONG CAP SITTING AT 725 HPA. THE TRADES
ARE FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS NEARING 10KT ON FRIDAY MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS OVER THE ISLANDS ON
FRIDAY MORNING. OF RELEVANCE AND IN THE LOW-LEVELS...AN ELONGATED
FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 23N 55W...19N 66W...NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
THE ARC OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 50MM ALONG ITS AXIS AND IN AREAS TO THE
EAST. BOTH TROUGH AND FRONT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY RESPECTIVELY.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO HOLD THROUGH THE FORECAST
CYCLE...LIMITING THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. EXPECT
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON FRIDAY...AS EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADES FAVOR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN EAST AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
WESTERN VI. EXPECT MAXIMA GENEARLLY UNDER 0.1 INCHES...EXPECT
0.2-0.3 INCHES IN AREAS OF TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. THE TROUGH CROSSES
FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY...YET THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH FO THE
ISLANDS. IN PUERTO RICO...EXPECT MODERATE AMOUNTS IN EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 0.5
INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMA NEAR 0.8 INCHES IN REGIONS OF TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT.
THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO START LOSING DEFINITION ON
SATURDAY. YET...REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
INTO PUERTO RICO LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 0.5-0.75 INCHES IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO.
AFTER THIS PERIOD...THE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO
SEASONAL...CHARACTERIZED BY INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
PRIMARILY IN EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND FAVORED
BY SHALLOW CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHEASTERLY TRADES.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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