096
FXCA20 KWBC 121924
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 PM EST TUE DEC 12 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 12 DEC 2023 AT 1920 UTC: A POLAR FRONT EXTENDS
FRON THE NORTH ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND IS
RETREATING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. BY THE EVENING THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...NORTHERST CUBA...YUCATAN
CHANNEL. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING IT EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE RIO BRAVO. BY THURSDAY EVENING IT
IS EXPECTED ACROSS ELEUTHERA/NEW PROVIDENCE...FLORIDA KEYS...SOUTH
TEXAS. A SHEAR LINE IS ALSO PRESENT. ON TUESDAY EVENING IT IS
FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...GULF OF HONDURAS. BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND...OFF THE COAST OF NORTHWEST CUBA
INTO THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THEN DISSIPATE. ON
TUESDAY...INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHEAR LINE MOIST PLUME AND AN
AAPROACHING NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. IN BELIZE AND ISLAS DE LA
BAHIA...EXPECT 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM. IN NORTHERN
HONDURAS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GUATEMALA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ALSO ON TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL FAVOR ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM IN
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND IN CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CUBA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE MOIST PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR LINE IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE...WHERE
EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM WITH A RISK OF ECHO
TRAINING. ON THURSDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS.
FRONTOGENESIS IS OCCURRING IN THE ATLANTIC AND IS FORMING A
SURFACE FRONT WELL TO THE SOUGH OF 20N AND EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ORGANIZE AND BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING EXPECT A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDING ALONG 13N
55W...GRENADA...ISLA MARGARITA. BY THURSDAY EVENING EXPECT THE
SHEAR LINE ALONG 12N 55W...TOBAGO...ISLA MARGARITA. THIS WILL
STIMULATE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15MM ON
WEDNESDAY...INCREASING TO MAXIMA OF 15-25MM BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.
THE TRADES ARE ACCELERATING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WHILE ACQUIRING A
LONG-FETCH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL FAVOR SCATTERED
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE GREATER
ANTILLES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST COASTS. EXPECT PRIMARILY
SHALLOW DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NROTHERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THESE TRADES WILL ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. ON TUESDAY THIS WILL FAVOR GENERALLY MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST
NICARAGUA/NORTHERN COSTA RICA...AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN WEST
PANAMA. ON THURSDAY EXPECT A DECREASE TO MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ORGANIZE ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA ON THURSDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH AN
ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENT TIER OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA...WHICH WILL
HIGHLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE ITCZ AND ITS
CONVERGENCE WITH THE SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN ACCUMULATION ON WESDNESDAY TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. ON THURSDAY THIS INCREASES FURTHER TO 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
NONE
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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