550
FXUS01 KWBC 121957
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 PM EST TUE DEC 12 2023
VALID 00Z WED DEC 13 2023 - 00Z FRI DEC 15 2023
...HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
..LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES BEGINNING TODAY
...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING FORECAST FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA THURSDAY...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AS THE
EAST COAST REMAINS A BIT CHILLY...
A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND SPREAD INTO THE
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SAN JUANS AND SANGRE DE
CRISTOS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WHERE
OVER A FOOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AND TEMPERATURES, LIKELY HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING, AND WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN OR
SNOW. CURRENTLY, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY
SNOWFALL OF 4-10". SURROUNDING AREAS INCLUDING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES WILL ALSO HAVE THE
CHANCE TO SEE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARMER OVER WEST TEXAS, PARTICULARLY ON
THURSDAY.
TO THE EAST, MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE-EFFECT
SNOW FOR FAVORABLE DOWNWIND LOCATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MORE
MODERATE TOTALS OF 3-6" ARE MOST LIKELY DOWNWIND OF LAKES SUPERIOR
AND ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY ACROSS THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING NEAR SOUTH
FLORIDA AS WELL AS VERY MOIST, EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL
LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
SOME LOCALLY VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
THURSDAY, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4)
HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN AND
SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. ELSEWHERE, A SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE LOWER ELEVATION/COASTAL SHOWERS AND SNOW FOR THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
AREAS OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL SEE A WARMING TREND TO END
THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
WILL BE WELL INTO THE 40S THURSDAY, UPWARDS OF 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FOR THE EAST COAST FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH 20S AND 30S
FOR NEW ENGLAND AND 40S FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS. CONDITIONS WILL BE RUNNING AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE FROM THE
EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS, AS WELL AS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHILLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
PUTNAM
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page