747
FXCA20 KWBC 131244
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
744 AM EST WED DEC 13 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI DEC 13/12UTC:
NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE AS MUCH AS 25 KT SUSTAINED WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TODAY...BUT ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THEN
MODERATE ESE-SE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SFC
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ON TODAY
INTO THURSDAY. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC FROM THE EASTERN USA FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT
SAID...A SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE EAST COAST OF THE USA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CAUSING THE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION
EXPECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE MID LEVELS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
WEAK RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT WEAK
TROUGHINESS IS SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS THIS WEEKEND. THE
UPPER LEVELS WILL ALSO HAVE A RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...THOUGH AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN ON LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...FLATTENING BY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE MAY
BE SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGER OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WILL START TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY...REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE TWIN ALGORITHM IS
STILL SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION NEAR THE
800-850MB LEVEL THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE INVERSION ERODING ON
FRIDAY ONWARD. THE EGDI ALGORITHM IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE MAY BE
A CHANCE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION TO VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND...BUT THE SIGNAL IS VERY WEAK. THIS COULD BE IN RESPOSE TO
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED AS THE SFC LOW MOVES FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE EAST COAST OF THE USA...COMBINED WITH THE
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND THE POSSIBLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
THE RAINFALL FORECAST STILL FAVORS NORTH AND EASTERN PR...AS WELL
AS THE USVI TO RECEIVE SOME RAIN EACH DAY...BUT GENERALLY IN BRIEF
SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER AS MOISTURE INCREASES LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE AMOUNTS AND FREQUENCY OF RAIN
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE RAINFALL MAX IS FORECAST TO BE AT AROUND 0.50
TO 0.75 INCHES...BUT NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR
NORTHEASTERN PR ON SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE 5-DAY TOTAL
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST SUGGESTS NEAR 2.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PR...AND BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75
INCHES FOR WESTERN PR AND ALSO THE USVI.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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