789
FXUS01 KWBC 131928
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 PM EST WED DEC 13 2023
VALID 00Z THU DEC 14 2023 - 00Z SAT DEC 16 2023
...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONCERNS OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...
..NORTHERN TIER AND WEST WARM UP
A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE ONGOING WINTER
STORM IMPACTING PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN A MOIST AIRMASS THAT
IS INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND TERRAIN TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE WPC
WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX INDICATES THAT MODERATE TO MAJOR
IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH CONSIDERABLE DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE
AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE REGION. FURTHER EAST IN THE HIGH PLAINS, SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS INCREASE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY FALL AS RAIN OR WINTRY MIXED
PRECIPITATION.
IN ADDITION TO IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER, THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE SOUTHWEST WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
EXPANDING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS WEEKEND. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS AND
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN IN FLORIDA THANKS TO A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN, LOW-LYING, AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS OVER THE GULF AND APPROACHES THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE COASTAL PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AN APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
RAINFALL TO LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SNOW TO
THE MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH FROM CANADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST AND THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS
IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST WILL LIKELY REACH 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER.
DOLAN
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