947
FXCA20 KWBC 151211
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
710 AM EST FRI DEC 15 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 14 DEC 2023 AT 2030 UTC: CYCLOGENESIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
STARTING EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN USA ROCKY MOUNTAINS PRESSES IN FROM THE
WEST. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION. BUT AS THE
TROUGH DEVELOPS A NEGATIVE TILT IN ITS BASE...IT WILL LIKELY YIELD
TO A RAPID EVOLUTION. EVENTHOUGH THE LARGEST IMPACTS IN TERMS OF
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN THE UNITED STATES AS THE LOW MEANDERS
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND...THE SYSTEM WILL FAVOR LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN CUBA AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ON
WEDNESDAY. FURTHERMORE...EXPECT A COLD FRONT PROPAGATING INTO
EASTERN COSTA RICA AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHWEST PANAMA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND A NOTICEABLE COOLING FOR
MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
AS CYCLOGENESIS STARTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXPECT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15MM IN
TABASCO/CAMPECHE AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
BY SATURDAY EVENING...EXPECT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
NROTHEAST GULG OF MEXICO ALONG PINAR DEL RIO IN WEST
CUBA...NORTHERN BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA. A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERST BAHAMAS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE
A SQUALL LINE IS POSSIBLE IN WEST-CENTRAL CUBA. NOTE THAT ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF
THE USA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MERGE
WITH THE FRONT TO ITS EAST ON SUNDAY...TO LATER CONTINUE
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD AND ADVECT THE COOLER AIRMASS INTO MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL
TOTALS ON SATURDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75-125MM IN BIMINI AND GRAND
BAHAMA WHILE IN THE REST OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. IN WEST CUBA...EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM WITH THE SQUALL LINE. IN CENTRAL
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND GUATEMALA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
15-25MM AS THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INTERACT WITH TERRAIN. IN
NORTHERN HONDURAS AND ISLAS DE LA BAHIA THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
15-30MM.
ANOTHER SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
JAMAICA INTO NORTHERN ECUADOR ON THURSDAY. THIS IS INTEARCTING
WITH ITCZ CONVERGENCE FAVORING LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN
WESTERN COLOMBIA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MEANDER WESTWARD
RAPIDLY WHILE FILLING IN...YIELDING TO AN ANTICYCLONIC/UPPER RIDGE
CONFIGURATION OVER COLOMBIA BY SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...LOWERING
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURES/GEOPOTENTIAL IN COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR A NORTWARD
MIGRATION OF MOISTURE FROM THE AMAZON BASIN. THIS WILL FAVOR
MODERATE PRECIPITATION IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL COLOMBIA INCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ORINOQUIA THROUGH SATURDAY.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER
FROM TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AND NORTHEAST VENZUELA ON THURSDAY TO THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION IN THE 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY RANGE.
OTHERWISE...PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA ON A DAILY BASIS. THE ARRIVAL OF A MOIST PLUME ON
FRIDAY WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN ACCUMULATION TO SUSTAIN MAXIMA OF
15-30MM ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
NONE
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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