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FXCA20 KWBC 151246
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
745 AM EST FRI DEC 15 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI DEC 15/12UTC:
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PROBABLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE...IN COMBINATION A
WITH THE NE TO ENE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...NORTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN PR ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE PERIODS OF RAIN THAT COULD
AMOUNT TO NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY AND ALSO ON SATURDAY. THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY
ONWARD. THE EGDI ALGORITHM IS SUGGESTING VERY SHALLOW CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY
LIKELY.
IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC PATTERNS...THERE IS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AS A SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO NORTHWARD THOUGH THE EASTERN COAST OF THE US THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL INFLUENCE THE
DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE LOCAL WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH WILL BE FROM NE TO ENE TODAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...EASTER;Y ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN NORTHERLY BY
WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN
TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THEN A RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH ANOTHER
TROUGH COULD APPROACH THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MIDWEEK.
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...TODAY AND SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO HAVE THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN...BUT EASTERN PR AND THE USVI ARE FORECAST
TO RECEIVE SOME RAIN EACH DAY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 5-DAY
RAINFALL TOTAL IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2.5 INCHES FOR EASTERN
PR...BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES FOR THE REST OF NORTHERN PR AS
WELL AS VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. THE USVI ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 0.50
AND 0.75 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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