760
FXCA20 KWBC 152046
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 PM EST FRI DEC 15 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 15 DEC 2023 AT 2030 UTC: A SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS
A SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT INTERACTS WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH...AND MEANDER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
USA/EAST COAST. ALTHOUGH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN TERMS OF
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN THE UNITED STATES...EXPECT PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND CUBA AS WELL AS LONG-FETCH
FRONTS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST OF THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW INTENSIFYING IN THE
CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL STIMULATE ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ALSO
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND VERY ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-30MM
IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT. ON SATURDAY
EVENING...EXPECT THE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND A
FRONT EXTENDING ALONG WEST CUBA...NORTHERN BELIZE/CENTRAL
GUATEMALA. ALSO...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED FROM THE LOW AND ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A SQUALL LINE IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL CUBA. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM IN WEST-CENTRAL CUBA WITH THE POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE. IN
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 75-125MM IN
BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA...WHILE ELSEWHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. NOTE THAT A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND IS FORECAST ALONG SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...22N 90W...SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/NORTH OAXACA. THIS WILL
FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN NORTHERN
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY EVENING...EXPECT A COLD FRONT ALONG 20N
75W...CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CAYMAN ISLANDS...NORTHERN HONDURAS. A
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED FRMO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ALONG
SOUTHEAST CUBA...JAMAICA...INTO EAST PANAMA. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS WHERE...IN INTERACTION
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...THE SETUP WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. IN THE CARIBBEAN/SOUTH COAST OF EAST CUBA AND
CAYMAN BRAC EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE IN JAMAICA AND GRAND
CAYMAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM.
ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE THAT IS
MEANDERING IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE AND REGAIN DEFINITION ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL GENERALLY FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON A DAILY
BASIS.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN
WEST COLOMBIA ON FRIDAY...AS ITCZ CONVERGENCE INTERACTS WITH THE
DIVERGENT TIER OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
75-125MM...ALTHOUGH UNSEASONABLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
IN COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-30MM ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL COLOMBIA. EXPECT MODERATE AMOUNTS
ON SATURDAY AS WELL...DECREASING AFTER.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
NONE
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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