299
FXUS01 KWBC 160755
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 AM EST SAT DEC 16 2023
VALID 12Z SAT DEC 16 2023 - 12Z MON DEC 18 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY...
...LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE UP
OF MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE STORM WILL
MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY,
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN
TO THE DELAWARE COAST BY MONDAY. THE MAJOR SYSTEM WILL START TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA, WITH HEAVY RAIN ON
SATURDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL
STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
IN ADDITION, THE STORM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, FEW TORNADOES, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF
HAIL.
ON SUNDAY, THE STORM WILL MOVE FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY. THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/DELAWARE TO EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
LIKEWISE, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVES NORTHWARD TO
THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTHERN CAROLINA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, FEW
TORNADOES, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF HAIL.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DISSIPATE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
ON SATURDAY. MOREOVER, A STREAK OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN CANADA ON
SUNDAY, MOVING TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE COLD
AIR WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN FROM SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY.
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL MOVE OVER PARTS OF THE WEST COAST, CREATING LIGHT RAIN OVER
PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND OREGON SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
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