297
FXUS01 KWBC 172014
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST SUN DEC 17 2023
VALID 00Z MON DEC 18 2023 - 00Z WED DEC 20 2023
...AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND-SWEPT HEAVY RAIN
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH MONDAY...
...COLDER AIR BEHIND THE STORM WILL TRIGGER LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
AND UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO TUESDAY...
...A COUPLE OF SLOW-MOVING OCEANIC STORMS IN THE PACIFIC WILL
SPREAD UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE WEST COAST STATES THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...
THE CENTER OF AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA WHERE NEW ALL-TIME LOWEST SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE VALUES MIGHT
HAVE BEEN ESTABLISHED EARLY THIS MORNING (PENDING VERIFICATION).
THIS INTENSE STORM IS NOW TRACKING JUST OFF THE COASTLINE OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
RAPIDLY. A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AHEAD OF THE STORM
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH TONIGHT, REACHING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE WARM AND MOIST AIR SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE
ATLANTIC WILL SHARPEN A FRONT NEAR THE COAST PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL
OF THE STORM CENTER. THIS FRONT WILL HELP FOCUS THE MOST INTENSE
RAINFALL TO IMPACT AREAS JUST TO THE WEST, WHILE THE STRONGEST
ONSHORE WINDS FROM THE EAST WILL IMPACT AREAS NEAR AND JUST INLAND
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
BRIEF INTENSE RAINFALL ALONG WITH SQUALLS CAN BE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL PLAINS AS WELL. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, A
DOUBLE-BARREL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE
QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE RAIN ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE STORM CENTER AS WIND-SWEPT RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES,
OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, COLDER AIR FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE PULLED
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY BEHIND THE BIG
STORM, TRIGGERING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS BY LATER ON MONDAY. EVEN
THOUGH THE BIG STORM WILL BEGIN TO DEPART THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
EVENING, THE HUGE CIRCULATION OF THE STORM WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE EASTERN U.S. WITH VERY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON
TUESDAY, TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES BY TUESDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE, PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A LARGE AND SLOW-MOVING OCEANIC
STORM IN THE PACIFIC HAS ALREADY REACHED CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD UNSETTLED WEATHER UP THE WEST
COAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER OCEANIC STORM APPROACHES IN ITS
WAKE LATER ON TUESDAY. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
RECEIVE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF MORE THAN TWO INCHES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE REMINDER OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL U.S. WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER A STABLE AND
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE ENTIRE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN MILDER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR BEFORE THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR FROM CANADA BRINGS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
MONDAY. MEANWHILE, RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC
SURGES INTO THE REGION AMID WIND-SWEPT HEAVY RAIN IN THE HEIGHT OF
THE BIG EASTERN STORM. COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY
INCLUDING FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.
KONG
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