658
FXCA20 KWBC 191931
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
230 PM EST TUE DEC 19 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 19 DEC 2023 AT 1930 UTC: THE CURRENT LARGELY
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTRATROPICAL AMERICAS
IS SUSTAINING LONG-FETCH BOUNDARIES THAT ARE AFFECTING THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN BASIN AND EVEN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. BY
TUESDAY EVENING EXPECT A FRONT ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS...WEST
HAITI...15N 78W...BOCAS DEL TORO IN PANAMA. A SHEAR LINE IS ALSO
PRESENT ACROSS NORTHEAST HISPANIOLA...BARAHONA...EAST PANAMA. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING EXPECT A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
NORTHEAST HISPANIOLA...BARAHONA...INTO SAN ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA.
THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A FRONTAL SHEAR
LINE...THAT ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED FROM BARAHONA INTO PROVIDENCIA
AND NORTHEAST COSTA RICA. A SECOND FRONT IS RAPIDLY PROPAGATING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS/SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS RESULTING ON LIMITED EFFECTS IN
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SECOND FRONT...AS WELL AS THE LACK OF A
CONTINUOUS SWATH OF OVERCASTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BY TUESDAY
EVENING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CENTRAL
CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING IT IS FORECAST ALONG
THE TURKS AND CAICOS...SOUTHEAST CUBA...CAYMAN ISLANDS...CENTRAL
YUCATAN PENINSULA. BY THURSDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST HISPANIOLA...CENTRAL HAITI...CAYMAN BRAC...YUCATAN
CHANNEL.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...EXPECT A CONTINUED RISK FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY FOR HISPANIOLA AND PORTIOS OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. IN THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN TIERS OF HISPANIOLA EXPECT 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
50-100MM. IN SOUTHERN HAITI EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN WEST
PANAMA AND NORTHEAST COSTA RICA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM...WHILE
IN EAST PANAMA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WHILE IN THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM...AS WELL
AS IN SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. AS A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE
REORGANIZES ALONG BARAHONA...PROVIDENCIA...NORTHEAST COSTA RICA ON
THURSDAY...THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN NORTHEAST COSTA
RICA/SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN SAN
ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA AND IN WEST PANAMA.
ANOTHER SHEAR LINE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ON TUESDAY EVENING EXPECT IT BETWEEN BARBADOS
AND TOBAGO INTO THE GRENADINES AND GRENADA. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
EXPECT IT ALONG BARBADOS...GRENADINES. BY THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS
SAINT LUCIA...ABC ISLANDS. MOISTURE IS DEEP WITH THIS PLUME...AS
HIGH MOISTURE WATER VALUES ARE PRESENT UP TO 600 HPA. ON TUESDAY
EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE UPPER DIVERGENT MADDEN JULIAN IS
STIMULATING AREAS OF PRECIPITATING CONVECTION. GIVEN A FORECAST
STRENGTHENING OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH/SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OF
SOUTH AMERICA...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS MOST
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AMAZON THROUGH THE CYCLE. THIS WILL
FAVOR SCATTERED MAXIMA OVER 50MM/2 INCHES PER DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS COASTAL ECUADOR/SOUTHWEST
COLOMBIA...WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE CONTINENT
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY ON TUESDAY...DECREASING GRADUALLY
TO MAXIMA OF 20-40MM BY THURSDAY.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
NONE
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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