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FXCA20 KWBC 221244
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
744 AM EST FRI DEC 22 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI DEC 22/12UTC:
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY...BECOMING STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PR/USVI BY
THIS EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. NNE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TODAY...BECOMING EASTERLY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE LOCAL WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY AGAIN LON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.6 INCHES.
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...CONTRIBUTING TO THE
NE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN TO
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND A MID LEVEL LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK...MEANWHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. THAT SAID...THE BROAD TROUGH WILL KEEP WESTERLY WINDS
IN THE MID LEVELS OVER PR/USVI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER TROUGH THAT
HAS ITS AXIS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS MOVING EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER PUERTO RICO BY EARLY SATURDAY AS IT
MOVES TO THE EAST QUICKLY. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY LATE SATURDAY...THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS MAY BE RELATIVELY STRONG...WITH THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING WINDS OF AROUND 85 KT AT AROUND THE 250 MB LEVEL.
THE HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RAINFALL
TOTALS TODAY. MANY OF THE DIFFERENT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN PR...WHILE
SIGNIFICANT...BUT NOT AS MUCH RAIN IS SUGGESTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN PR. THE USVI ARE STILL FORECAST MODEST
AMOUNTS OF RAIN TODAY...HOWEVER. SINCE THERE ARE SEVERAL HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS THAT ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE INCREASED THE FORECAST RAINFALL FOR TODAY
ACROSS NORTHERN PR...SUGGESTING GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS MOSTLY AROUND 0.25 INCHES
OR LESS...EXCEPT ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL PR THAT
COULD OBSERVE NEAR 0.50 INCHES ON SATURDAY. OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS...THE USVI CAN EXPECTED BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.25 INCHES EACH DAY. THE 5-DAY
TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT NORTHERN PR COULD OBSERVE
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN...WHILE THE REST OF PR AS WELL AS
THE USVI ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1 INCH.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
NOTE: THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE ON TUESDAY DECEMBER
26TH...HAPPY HOLIDAYS EVERYONE.
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