813
FXUS01 KWBC 222000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EST FRI DEC 22 2023
VALID 00Z SAT DEC 23 2023 - 00Z MON DEC 25 2023
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLASH FLOODING TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING; SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SEE POTENTIAL FLOODING
IMPACTS ON SATURDAY; GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
SEE HEAVY RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE ...
...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN ANTICIPATED FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SNOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE
MORNING OF CHRISTMAS EVE...
...UNUSUALLY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH SOME POCKETS OF RECORD
BREAKING WARMTH LIKELY IN PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGH
THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE STOCKING STUFFED WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE ROCKIES TO THE
HEARTLAND AND THE GREAT LAKES. THE CULPRITS RESPONSIBLE ARE TWO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES; ONE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING. THE
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING ABOUT PERIODS OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN FROM THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST TO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. THE MORE
POTENT OF THE TWO FEATURES IS THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AS IT FUNNELS RICH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK IN
PLACE FROM FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH, HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHERE OVER
A FOOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. IN THE GREAT
LAKES, A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE SHOWERS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
BY SATURDAY, THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE, AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS IN THE TALLEST PEAKS OF COLORADO, WYOMING, AND
SOUTHERN MONTANA. MEANWHILE, A SURGE OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL PROMPT HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BLOSSOM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES ARE
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE A SLIGHT RISK IS IN PLACE. FARTHER WEST, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK IN PLACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER WEST TEXAS COULD SPARK SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE GREAT LAKES MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS (LITTLE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED).
BY THE MORNING OF CHRISTMAS EVE, THE COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL HAVE MADE IT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, FORCING
PRECIPITATION TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW FROM NORTHERN COLORADO
TO THE DAKOTAS. UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS, AS WELL AS MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THANKS TO A WINTRY MIX
IN ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER IN EASTERN NEBRASKA ON NORTH INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. TO THE SOUTH, THE CONVEYOR BELT OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS.
WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN HTESE AREAS, AS
WELL AS BOTH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN TEXAS. BY CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT, BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST WILL GENERALLY BE DRY, WHILE
THE MID-SOUTH ON NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CAN EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER. MOTORISTS AND
REINDEER SHOULD BE SURE THAT THEIR HEADLIGHTS AND NOSES ARE LIT UP
BRIGHTLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, IT WILL NOT BEGIN TO FEEL A LOT LIKE CHRISTMAS
IN FOR MUCH OF THE HEARTLAND ON EAST TO THE EAST COAST THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY, MANY PLACES IN THE HEARTLAND CAN
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS THAT RANGE BETWEEN 10-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON SATURDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL EVEN BE MILDER WITH A WIDE
FOOTPRINT OF 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BY CHRISTMAS EVE, RECORD WARM MINIMUM
TEMPS WILL BE COMMON IN THE MIDWEST WHERE MANY LOW TEMPS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS FOR LATE DECEMBER.
THE EAST COAST WILL NOT WITNESS QUITE THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH THAT
THE MIDWEST WILL, BUT DAILY AVERAGE TEMPS COULD STILL TOP 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
BY CHRISTMAS DAY, THE MOST UNUSUALLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS COULD RANGE
BETWEEN 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IN CONTRAST, THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE THE
COOLEST VERSUS NORMAL THANKS TO A RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
INJECTING THE REGION WITH AN AIR-MASS THAT FEELS A LOT MORE LIKE
CHRISTMAS COMPARED TO THEIR NEIGHBORS ON THE EAST AND WEST COASTS.
MULLINAX
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