616
FXUS01 KWBC 222010
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
309 PM EST FRI DEC 22 2023
VALID 00Z SAT DEC 23 2023 - 00Z MON DEC 25 2023
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLASH FLOODING TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING; SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SEE POTENTIAL FLOODING
IMPACTS ON SATURDAY; GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
SEE HEAVY RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE ...
...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN ANTICIPATED FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SNOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE
MORNING OF CHRISTMAS EVE...
...UNUSUALLY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH SOME POCKETS OF RECORD
BREAKING WARMTH LIKELY IN PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGH
THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE STOCKING-STUFFED WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE ROCKIES TO THE
HEARTLAND AND GREAT LAKES. THE CULPRITS RESPONSIBLE ARE TWO UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES; ONE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A CLOSED
UPPER LOW TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING. THE
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING ABOUT PERIODS OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN FROM THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST TO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. THE MORE
POTENT OF THE TWO FEATURES IS THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AS IT FUNNELS RICH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PLACE FROM FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH, HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHERE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. IN THE GREAT LAKES, A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE SHOWERS
FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
BY SATURDAY, THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE, AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS IN THE TALLEST PEAKS OF COLORADO, WYOMING, AND
SOUTHERN MONTANA. MEANWHILE, A SURGE OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL PROMPT HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BLOSSOM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES ARE
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE A SLIGHT RISK IS IN PLACE. FARTHER WEST, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK IN PLACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER WEST TEXAS COULD SPARK SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE GREAT LAKES MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS (LITTLE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED).
BY THE MORNING OF CHRISTMAS EVE, THE COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL HAVE MADE IT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, FORCING
PRECIPITATION TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW FROM NORTHERN COLORADO
TO THE DAKOTAS. UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS, AS WELL AS MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THANKS TO A WINTRY MIX
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER IN EASTERN NEBRASKA ON NORTH INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. TO THE SOUTH, THE CONVEYOR BELT OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS.
WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS, AS
WELL AS IN BOTH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN TEXAS. BY CHRISTMAS
EVE NIGHT, BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST WILL GENERALLY BE DRY,
WHILE THE MID-SOUTH ON NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CAN EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER. MOTORISTS AND
REINDEER SHOULD BE SURE THAT THEIR HEADLIGHTS AND NOSES ARE LIT UP
BRIGHTLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, IT WILL NOT BEGIN TO FEEL A LOT LIKE CHRISTMAS
FOR MUCH OF THE HEARTLAND ON EAST TO THE EAST COAST THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY, MANY PLACES IN THE HEARTLAND CAN EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS THAT RANGE BETWEEN 10-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MORNING LOWS WILL EVEN BE MILDER WITH A WIDE FOOTPRINT OF 20-30
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. BY CHRISTMAS EVE, RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPS WILL BE COMMON
IN THE MIDWEST WHERE MANY LOW TEMPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS FOR LATE DECEMBER. THE EAST COAST WILL
NOT WITNESS QUITE THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH THAT THE MIDWEST WILL, BUT
DAILY AVERAGE TEMPS COULD STILL TOP 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST ON CHRISTMAS EVE. BY CHRISTMAS DAY, THE
MOST UNUSUALLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS COULD RANGE BETWEEN 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. IN CONTRAST, THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE THE COOLEST VERSUS NORMAL THANKS
TO A RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INJECTING THE REGION WITH AN
AIR-MASS THAT FEELS A LOT MORE LIKE CHRISTMAS COMPARED TO THEIR
NEIGHBORS ON THE EAST AND WEST COASTS.
MULLINAX
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