718
FXUS01 KWBC 230822
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST SAT DEC 23 2023
VALID 12Z SAT DEC 23 2023 - 12Z MON DEC 25 2023
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLASH FLOODING THREATS SHIFT EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY, SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND WEST OF MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY CHRISTMAS EVE...
...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN TRAVERSE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...
...SNOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE...
...UNUSUALLY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH SOME REACHING RECORD LEVELS IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY BRINGING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING STEADILY THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO DEVELOP AND CONSOLIDATE AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY, INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO EASE AS
TODAY PROGRESSES, AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
HEAVY RAIN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WHEN
THE TWO SYSTEMS MEET OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WITH A SWATH OF SNOW BEGINNING TO EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY,
CHRISTMAS EVE. IN THE MEAN TIME, WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST
REGION TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING OF CHRISTMAS EVE. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE A SLIGHT RISK IS IN PLACE. FARTHER
NORTHEAST, A WEAKER SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. LITTLE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
BY CHRISTMAS EVE, AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
FURTHER DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN WILL THEN SHIFT FARTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION WHILE EXTENDING BACK TO THE WEST OF THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT WITH
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER NORTH
IN THE COLD AIR, A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED FARTHER EAST. BY CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT TO CHRISTMAS
MORNING, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS THE
STORM CENTER SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE MIDWEST. RAIN/ICE/SNOW COULD
BEGIN TO EXPAND AND PICK UP INTENSITY OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
PLAINS WHEN THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES WITH WINDS INCREASING IN
STRENGTH BY CHRISTMAS MORNING.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, IT WILL NOT FEEL TOO MUCH LIKE CHRISTMAS FROM
THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY EAST TO THE EAST COAST THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY, MANY PLACES IN THE GREAT PLAINS CAN EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS THAT RANGE BETWEEN 10-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MORNING LOWS WILL EVEN BE MILDER WITH A WIDE FOOTPRINT OF 20-30
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. BY CHRISTMAS EVE, RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPS WILL BE COMMON
IN THE MIDWEST WHERE MANY LOW TEMPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS FOR LATE DECEMBER. THE EAST COAST WILL
NOT WITNESS QUITE THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH THAT THE MIDWEST WILL, BUT
DAILY AVERAGE TEMPS COULD STILL TOP 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST ON CHRISTMAS EVE. BY CHRISTMAS DAY, THE
MOST UNUSUALLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS COULD RANGE BETWEEN 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. IN CONTRAST, THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE THE COOLEST VERSUS NORMAL THANKS
TO A RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INJECTING THE REGION WITH AN
AIR-MASS THAT FEELS A LOT MORE LIKE CHRISTMAS COMPARED TO THEIR
NEIGHBORS ON THE EAST AND WEST COASTS.
KONG/MULLINAX
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