252
FXUS01 KWBC 232007
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
306 PM EST SAT DEC 23 2023
VALID 00Z SUN DEC 24 2023 - 00Z TUE DEC 26 2023
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL TO SHIFT EAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY, TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST ON CHRISTMAS EVE, THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON CHRISTMAS
DAY...
...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FOR BOTH CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY, RESULTING IN A WHITE CHRISTMAS AND TREACHEROUS
TRAVEL FOR SOME...
...UNUSUALLY MILD TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WITH SOME RECORD BREAKING WARMTH POSSIBLE IN THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES BOTH CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY...
AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE JUST IN
TIME FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. ONE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON IS RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, IN ADDITION TO A PLUME OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE FOSTERING THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE
WEATHER. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) ISSUED SLIGHT RISKS
FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS A
SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE FOR WEST TEXAS, AS WELL AS A MARGINAL RISK
THAT STRETCHES NORTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE
SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE
RACING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, USHERING IN A
COLDER AIR-MASS AND CAUSING PERIODS OF SNOW TO ENSUE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
BY THE MORNING OF CHRISTMAS EVE, THE COLD FRONT FORMERLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DASH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, FORCING
PRECIPITATION TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TO THE DAKOTAS. UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS, AS WELL AS MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THANKS TO A WINTRY MIX
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER IN EASTERN NEBRASKA ON NORTH INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TO THE SOUTH,
THE CONVEYOR BELT OF RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WPC POSTED SLIGHT RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THESE REGIONS. BY CHRISTMAS
EVE NIGHT, BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COASTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY,
WHILE THE MID-SOUTH ON NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CAN EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER. MOTORISTS AND
REINDEER SHOULD BE SURE THAT THEIR HEADLIGHTS AND NOSES ARE LIT UP
BRIGHTLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE.
AS THE SUN RISES ON CHRISTMAS DAY, THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND BECOME A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM FROM NORTHERN KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN MINNESOTA. FOR NEBRASKA AND EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA, THIS WILL MAKE FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS, BUT SNOW WILL
FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES AND BLUSTERY WINDS MAY CAUSE NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. WPC'S PROBABILISTIC WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX
(WSSI-P) SHOWS MODERATE CHANCES (40-60%) FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA, THERE IS A GROWING
CONCERN FOR TREACHEROUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 0.1" IN
SOME AREAS. THE WSSI-P DOES DEPICT MODERATE CHANCES (40-60%) FOR
MINOR IMPACTS DUE TO ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA,
ACROSS INTERSTATE 94 IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA, AND AS FAR NORTH AND
EAST AS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. TO THE SOUTH, THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AS
WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND A
MARGINAL RISK THAT REACHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, IT WILL NOT BEGIN TO FEEL A LOT LIKE CHRISTMAS
FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST ON EAST TO THE EAST COAST THIS EXTENDED
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AFTER AN EXCEPTIONALLY MILD DAY THROUGHOUT THE
HEARTLAND ON SATURDAY, BY CHRISTMAS EVE, RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPS
WILL BE COMMON IN THE MIDWEST WHERE MANY LOW TEMPS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS FOR LATE DECEMBER.
EVEN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MAY WITNESS RECORD BREAKING WARM HIGHS AND LOWS ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
BY CHRISTMAS DAY, THE MOST UNUSUALLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WHERE HIGHS COULD
RANGE BETWEEN 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE EAST COAST WILL NOT
WITNESS QUITE THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH THAT THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES WILL, BUT DAILY AVERAGE TEMPS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD AND
COULD STILL RANGE BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST BY CHRISTMAS DAY. IN CONTRAST, THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE THE COOLEST VERSUS
NORMAL THANKS TO A RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INJECTING THE
REGION WITH AN AIR-MASS THAT FEELS A LOT MORE LIKE CHRISTMAS
COMPARED TO THEIR NEIGHBORS ON THE EAST AND WEST COASTS.
MULLINAX
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