392
FXUS01 KWBC 240816
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST SUN DEC 24 2023
VALID 12Z SUN DEC 24 2023 - 12Z TUE DEC 26 2023
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL SHIFTS EAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST TODAY, THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY...
...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FOR BOTH
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY, RESULTING IN A WHITE CHRISTMAS
AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL...
...UNUSUALLY MILD TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WITH SOME RECORD BREAKING WARMTH POSSIBLE IN THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES BOTH CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
TO COME ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. JUST IN TIME
FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
TO THE LOUISIANA COAST WHILE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS, OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, A
COLD AIR MASS FROM CANADA IS DIPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE U.S. AREAS OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ARE BEGINNING TO
EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE COMPLEX INTERACTION
AMONG THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, AND THE
COLD AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO KICK THE ENTIRE SYSTEM FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TONIGHT, BEFORE A MORE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MIDWEST BY CHRISTMAS DAY. A SWATH
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH, REACHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BY CHRISTMAS DAY. THE HIGHEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO LIKEWISE SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE REMAINING
NEAR THE GULF COAST. LESS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FARTHER INLAND.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SLOW THEIR PROGRESSION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE SPREADING FARTHER NORTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS, OHIO VALLEY,
AND THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND EXPAND FURTHER ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WITH
COLD AIR BEING WRAPPED AROUND THIS INTENSIFYING STORM, THE CHANCE
OF A BLIZZARD HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WITH MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING BEING THE ESTIMATED
TIME FRAME FOR THE MOST IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. OVER A
FOOT OF SNOW CAN BEEN EXPECTED ALONG WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS. IN ADDITION, ICING WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE
FARTHER EAST AND NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MINNESOTA
DURING THIS PERIOD.
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT PACIFIC CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY BEFORE REACHING
WELL INLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE OLYMPICS AND THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR
THE INTERIOR WASHINGTON AND OREGON BY TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER WARM FOR CHRISTMAS FROM MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THIS EXTENDED HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON IN THE MIDWEST
WHERE MANY LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS FOR LATE DECEMBER. EVEN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY WITNESS RECORD BREAKING WARM
HIGHS AND LOWS TODAY CHRISTMAS EVE. BY CHRISTMAS DAY, THE MOST
UNUSUALLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES WHERE HIGHS COULD RANGE BETWEEN 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE EAST COAST WILL NOT WITNESS QUITE THE ANOMALOUS
WARMTH THAT THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL, BUT DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD AND COULD STILL RANGE BETWEEN
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST BY CHRISTMAS
DAY. IN CONTRAST, THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE THE COOLEST VERSUS NORMAL THANKS
TO A RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INJECTING THE REGION WITH AN
AIR-MASS THAT FEELS A LOT MORE LIKE CHRISTMAS COMPARED TO THEIR
NEIGHBORS ON THE EAST AND WEST COASTS.
KONG/MULLINAX
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