887
FXUS01 KWBC 240826
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
325 AM EST SUN DEC 24 2023
VALID 12Z SUN DEC 24 2023 - 12Z TUE DEC 26 2023
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL SHIFT EAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WELL AS ALONG THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST TODAY, THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY...
...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FOR BOTH
TODAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY, RESULTING IN A WHITE CHRISTMAS AND
TREACHEROUS TRAVEL...
...UNUSUALLY MILD TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WITH SOME RECORD BREAKING WARMTH POSSIBLE IN THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES BOTH TODAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
TO COME ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. JUST IN TIME
FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
TO THE LOUISIANA COAST WHILE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS, OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, A
COLD AIR MASS FROM CANADA IS DIPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE U.S. AREAS OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ARE BEGINNING TO
EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE COMPLEX INTERACTION
AMONG THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, AND THE
COLD AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO KICK THE ENTIRE SYSTEM FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TONIGHT, BEFORE A MORE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MIDWEST BY CHRISTMAS DAY. A SWATH
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH, REACHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BY CHRISTMAS DAY. THE HIGHEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO LIKEWISE SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE REMAINING
NEAR THE GULF COAST. LESS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FARTHER INLAND.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SLOW THEIR PROGRESSION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE SPREADING FARTHER NORTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS, OHIO VALLEY,
AND THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WITH COLD AIR
BEING WRAPPED AROUND THIS INTENSIFYING STORM, THE CHANCE OF A
BLIZZARD HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
WITH MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING BEING THE ESTIMATED TIME
FRAME FOR THE MOST IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. OVER A FOOT OF
SNOW CAN BEEN EXPECTED ALONG WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE AFFECTED
AREAS. IN ADDITION, ICING WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE FARTHER EAST
AND NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MINNESOTA DURING THIS
SAME PERIOD.
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT PACIFIC CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY BEFORE REACHING
WELL INLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE OLYMPICS AND THE CASCASDES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER WARM FOR CHRISTMAS FROM MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THIS EXTENDED HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON IN THE MIDWEST
WHERE MANY LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS FOR LATE DECEMBER. EVEN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY WITNESS RECORD BREAKING
WARM HIGHS AND LOWS ON CHRISTMAS EVE. BY CHRISTMAS DAY, THE MOST
UNUSUALLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES WHERE HIGHS COULD RANGE BETWEEN 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE EAST COAST WILL NOT WITNESS QUITE THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH
THAT THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL, BUT DAILY AVERAGE TEMPS
WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD AND COULD STILL RANGE BETWEEN 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST BY CHRISTMAS DAY.
IN CONTRAST, THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL BE THE COOLEST VERSUS NORMAL THANKS TO A RECENT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE INJECTING THE REGION WITH AN AIR-MASS THAT FEELS A
LOT MORE LIKE CHRISTMAS COMPARED TO THEIR NEIGHBORS ON THE EAST
AND WEST COASTS.
KONG/MULLINAX
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