009
FXUS01 KWBC 241957
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 PM EST SUN DEC 24 2023
VALID 00Z MON DEC 25 2023 - 00Z WED DEC 27 2023
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL "LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW, LET IT
SNOW" OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS WHERE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ARE ANTICIPATED;
TREACHEROUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...
...PASSING SHOWERS TO MAKE FOR A WET CHRISTMAS AND BOXING DAY IN
THE SOUTHEAST; NEW PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TO INTRODUCE MORE RAIN AND
MOUNTAINS SNOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...
...UNUSUALLY MILD TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WITH SOME RECORD BREAKING WARMTH POSSIBLE IN THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES...
THE BIG WEATHER STORY THIS CHRISTMAS EVE IS A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT BECOMING A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AND INTO TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, A CONVEYOR BELT OF RICH GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WPC MAINTAINS A PAIR OF SLIGHT RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL; ONE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND ANOTHER THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY ON NORTH TO THE KANSAS CITY
METRO AREA. FARTHER NORTH, PRECIPITATION OVERRUNNING A COLD FRONT
SUPPLYING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW SNOW TO FALL FROM CENTRAL KANSAS ON
NORTHWARD TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MOTORISTS AND REINDEER SHOULD
MAKE SURE THAT THEIR HEADLIGHTS AND NOSES ARE LIT UP BRIGHTLY IN
AREAS WHERE SNOW AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE.
BY CHRISTMAS MORNING, THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL FOSTER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
QUICKLY STRENGTHEN OVER IOWA. ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE STORM,
HEAVY SNOW WILL ENVELOPE MUCH OF NORTHERN KANSAS, CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SOME AREAS, PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF
BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WPC PROBABILITIES SHOW HIGH CHANCES (>70%) FOR >6 INCHES OF SNOW
IN THESE AREAS. WHILE THIS WOULD MEAN A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR SOME,
THE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TO EVEN POSSIBLE IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA, SIGNIFICANT ICING IS A GROWING
CONCERN. WPC PROBABILITIES NOW SHOW MODERATE CHANCES (40-60%) FOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS >0.25" IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. TREACHEROUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO ICE ARE LIKELY CHRISTMAS DAY AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. IN THE SOUTHEAST, A PASSING COLD FRONT
FUNNELING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD WILL SPAWN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WPC DOES HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.
BY TUESDAY, THE WINTER STORM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BUT STILL
PRODUCE A COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTEND WITH AN ICY WINTRY MIX THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. FARTHER EAST, THE PLUME OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WPC ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. IN THE WEST, A NEW POTENT PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ROUNDS OF HEAVY COASTAL/VALLEY RAIN AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO THE CASCADES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. A WINTRY MIX IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY AND BASIN MAY
LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, IT WILL NOT BE FEELING A LOT LIKE CHRISTMAS FROM
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST
COAST. ON THE HEELS OF A SATURDAY AND CHRISTMAS EVE THAT SPORTED
NUMEROUS RECORD WARM MIN AND MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, BY
CHRISTMAS DAY, MORE UNUSUALLY MILD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WHERE HIGH TEMPS COULD RANGE BETWEEN 15-25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE EAST COAST WILL NOT WITNESS QUITE THE
ANOMALOUS WARMTH THAT THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL, BUT DAILY
AVERAGE TEMPS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD AND COULD RANGE BETWEEN
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. TUESDAY
CONTINUES TO BE EXCEPTIONALLY MILD IN THE GREAT LAKES AND ALONG
THE EAST COAST WITH MORE RECORD BREAKING WARM MIN TEMPERATURES
SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE GREAT LAKES. IN CONTRAST, THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE THE
COOLEST VERSUS NORMAL THANKS TO A RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
INJECTING THE REGION WITH AN AIR-MASS THAT FEELS A LOT MORE LIKE
CHRISTMAS THAN COMPARED TO THEIR NEIGHBORS ON THE EAST AND WEST
COASTS.
MULLINAX
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