383
FXUS01 KWBC 250746
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 AM EST MON DEC 25 2023
VALID 12Z MON DEC 25 2023 - 12Z WED DEC 27 2023
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL "LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW, LET IT
SNOW" OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS WHERE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ARE ANTICIPATED;
TREACHEROUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...
...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MAKE FOR A WET CHRISTMAS AND
BOXING DAY FOR MUCH OF THE EAST, WITH SOME FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
FOR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TO INTRODUCE MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
...UNUSUALLY MILD TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WITH SOME RECORD BREAKING WARMTH POSSIBLE IN THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES...
A LARGE, DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MULTIFACETED IMPACTS TO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THIS CHRISTMAS, INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW,
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, AND ICE FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, RICH GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL SURGE FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY CHRISTMAS MORNING,
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL FOSTER A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN OVER
IOWA. ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE STORM, HEAVY SNOW WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS DAY ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS, NEBRASKA, AND SOUTH DAKOTA. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF >4" ARE
EXPECTED, WITH A HIGH CHANCE (70+%) OF A FOOT OF SNOW FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION, VERY STRONG
WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 55 MPH WILL LEAD TO BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. WHILE A WHITE CHRISTMAS MAY BE EXCITING FOR THOSE
NESTLED AT HOME, THE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TO EVEN IMPOSSIBLE
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA, SIGNIFICANT ICING IS EXPECTED. WPC
PROBABILITIES SHOW A HIGH CHANCE (70+%) OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS
GREATER THAN 0.1" ACROSS THE REGION, WITH MODERATE CHANCES
(40-60%) FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS >0.25" IN
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS, SLIPPERY
SIDEWALKS, AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ICE ARE EXPECTED. BY
TUESDAY, THE WINTER STORM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BUT STILL PRODUCE
A COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW, SHIFTING MORE
WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE
NORTH AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTEND WITH AN ICY WINTRY MIX
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
FURTHER EAST, GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE FUNNELING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL SPAWN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST. VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES IS FORECAST ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 2/4) HAS BEEN ISSUED AS SOME SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY
NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. BY TUESDAY,
THE PLUME OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AS A SECONDARY SYSTEM ORGANIZES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. IN THE WEST, A NEW POTENT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
DELIVER ROUNDS OF HEAVY COASTAL/VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
CASCADES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WINTRY MIX IS
FORECAST FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY AND BASIN AND MAY LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SOME LIGHTER SNOW WILL ALSO SPREAD
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON
THE HEELS OF THE FIRST, WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO PICK BACK
UP AGAIN ALONG THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, IT'S NO SURPRISE GIVEN ALL THE RAIN THAT IT WILL
NOT BE FEELING A LOT LIKE CHRISTMAS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON EAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST. ON THE HEELS OF A CHRISTMAS EVE
THAT SPORTED NUMEROUS RECORD WARM MIN AND MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST, MORE UNUSUALLY MILD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS DAY IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WHERE HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE EAST COAST WILL
NOT WITNESS QUITE THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH THAT THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES WILL, BUT DAILY AVERAGE TEMPS INTO THE 40S FOR NEW ENGLAND
AND 50S AND 60S FURTHER SOUTH WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD AND COULD
RANGE BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE
EXCEPTIONALLY MILD IN THE GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE EAST COAST
WITH MORE RECORD BREAKING WARM MIN TEMPERATURES SCATTERED
THROUGHOUT THE GREAT LAKES. IN CONTRAST, THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE THE COOLEST VERSUS
NORMAL THANKS TO A RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INJECTING THE
REGION WITH AN AIR-MASS THAT FEELS A LOT MORE LIKE CHRISTMAS, WITH
30S AND 40S TO THE NORTH AND 50S TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS WILL BE
AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE WEST, WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE GREAT BASIN,
50S AND 60S ALONG THE COAST, AND 60S AND 70S INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.
PUTNAM/MULLINAX
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