216
FXUS01 KWBC 260757
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 AM EST TUE DEC 26 2023
VALID 12Z TUE DEC 26 2023 - 12Z THU DEC 28 2023
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WITH HEAVY SNOW, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS,
AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING ICING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...
...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE EAST AS THE WORK WEEK
BEGINS, WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...PRECIPITATION CHANCES PICK BACK UP ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...
A LARGE, DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING
UNDER A DEEP UPPER-LOW AS A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND
WRAPS BACK AROUND A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST
ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF AROUND 2-4", LOCALLY 8", ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, WESTERN NEBRASKA, FAR EASTERN WYOMING, AND
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, WITH SOME LIGHTER SNOW INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI VALLEY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (70+%) THAT STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL EXCEED A FOOT FOR AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION, STRONG WINDS
GUSTING UPWARDS OF 55 MPH WILL LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE
COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW RATES AND WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS WILL MAKE
TRAVEL DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. A SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT
ALSO CONTINUES FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHERN/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.25 TO 0.5",
LOCALLY 0.75", WILL LEAD TO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE
AND POWER OUTAGES. A WINTRY MIX WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, UPPER OHIO VALLEY,
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THERE IS A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
INCHES OF RAIN ALONG UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TUESDAY, AND A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 2/4) IS IN EFFECT AS SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF FLASH
FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.
SOME LIGHT LOWER ELEVATION/COASTAL RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES QUICKLY RAMPING BACK UP. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY, PARTICULARLY FOR UPSLOPE FAVORABLE AREAS
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH. HEAVY SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HIGHER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. SOME ISOLATED FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY WARM, UPWARDS OF 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MANY WILL SEE HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND EVEN SOME LOW 50S. WHILE NOT QUITE AS ANOMALOUS,
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG THE EAST COAST,
WITH 50S FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND 60S IN THE CAROLINAS AND
SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER-LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH MAINLY 30S AND 40S. HIGHS
WILL BE AROUND AVERAGE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
TEXAS WITH 50S AND 60S FORECAST. THE WEST WILL ALSO BE RUNNING A
BIT ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR THE GREAT
BASIN, 50S AND 60S IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA, AND
60S AND 70S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
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