747
FXCA20 KWBC 261250
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
749 AM EST TUE DEC 26 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI DEC 26/12UTC:
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE
HIGHER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PR THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL IS
FORECAST OVER PR/USVI FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TODAY IS ALSO FORECAST
TO BE THE RAINIEST DAY OVER THE USVI...WITH MAX VALUES OF AROUND
0.15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN USVI...WHILE LITTLE TO NO
RAIN FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS LIMITED AMOUNT OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST IS DUE TO RIDGES IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS CAUSING A STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND LIMITING
CONVECTION...WHILE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE DECREASES GRADUALLY ON
WEDNESDAY...REACHING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY. THAT
SAID...THE NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TODAY COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT ENE WINDS...WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN PR THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS... AND
AMOUNTS SURPASSING 1 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST ACTIVITY. EVEN THOUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
STILL HAVE NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...THE ATMOSPHERE
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE STABLE THAN IT
IS TODAY...BASED ON THE POSITIONING OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGES. THEREFORE...THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST HAVE MAX
VALUES OF AROUND A TENTH TO 0.15 INCHES OF RAIN. FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD...THE AMOUNT OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST IS VERY LIMITED...BOTH
IN COVERAGE AND AMOUNT. THE TWIN ALGORITHM IS SUGGESTING A STRONG
INVERSION IN THE LOW LEVELS...NEAR 900 MB THAT WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW NORMAL.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS NEAR 1.25 TO 1.50
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR...NEAR
0.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AND EASTERN PR. THE USVI ARE
FORECAST NEAR 0.25 INCHES OVER THE 5-DAY PERIOD.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page