626
FXCA20 KWBC 262006
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
306 PM EST TUE DEC 26 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 26 DEC 2023 AT 1830 UTC: A BROAD MID-UPPER LOW
CENTERS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE USA. EMBEDDED IN THIS
CIRCULATION...AN ELONGATED TROUGH IS PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN MEXICO. THE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A
ROLE IN MODULATING SURFACE PRESSURES AND THE SPEED AND DIRECTION
OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS...FAVORING THE PROGRESSION OF SEVERAL
FRONTS INTO THE BASIN. THE TROUGH IN MEXICO...ON THE OTHER
HAND...WILL PLAY A STRONGER ROLE IN HIGHLIGHTING ASCENT AND
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN.
ON TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT A FRONT ALONG SOUTH CAROLINA...WEST
GRAND BAHAMA/BIMINI...CENTRAL CUBA...CENTRAL QUINTANA
ROO...CHIVELA PASS. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EXPECT THE BOUNDARY ALONG
30N 73W...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...NORTHERN QUINTANA
ROO...CHIVELA PASS. BY THURSDAY EVENING EXPECT IT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...NORTHWEST HONDURAS/ISLAS DE LA
BAHIA...CENTRAL GUATEMALA. A SECOND FRONT IS ORGANIZING IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...YET EXPECT IT TO BE LESS DEFINED AS IT
PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO TO EXTEND ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND WEST CUBA BY THURSDAY. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCES
WIDESPREAD ASCENT. FRONTAL CONVECTION IN QUINTANA ROO WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 15MM...WHILE IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON WEDNESDAY...INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH IN WEST CUBA WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. IN THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL AND COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND IN NORTH-CENTRAL CUBA. NOTE A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SQUALLY/SEVERE CONDITIONS. IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND IN
CENTRAL CUBA...THE SOUTHERN FRONT WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. TO THE WEST...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN NORTHERN
HONDURAS/CENTRAL GUATEMALA. IN SOUTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN NORTH
OAXACA AND TABASCO/CHIAPAS...THE NORTES WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND IN NORTHERN
GUATEMALA/NORTH BELIZE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
A MID TO UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND
EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FAVORING DRYER CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ARE BELOW 50MM
THROUGHOUT THE REGION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHILE DRYER AIR IS
LOCATED ALOFT. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS SEEING SHEAR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND IT MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOWER AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. ON TUESDAY EVENING...A FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES
NEAR 55W AND 20.5N AND EXTENDS WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING SOUTH BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THE
PREFRONTAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICATION PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TODAY OR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE LACK
OF FAVORABLE DYNAMICS IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
ON TUESDAY...IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...INTERACTION BETWEEN AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER VENEZUELA/THE GUIANAS AND NORTHERN BRAZIL AND
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH OVER PERU...BRAZIL...AND
BOLIVIA IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION IN
COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...NORTHERN PERU...AND NORTHERN BRASIL.
ADDITIONALLY...LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE REGION
WILL PROVIDE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST ECUADOR WILL HAVE
FAVORABLE WESTERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THAT WILL FAVOR
25-50MM/DAY AND LOCAL MAXIMA OF 75-150MM. SOUTHERN COLOMBIA CAN
EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM WITH THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE FAVORING HEAVY PRECIPITATION. SIMILARLY NORTHERN PERU
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN BRASIL AND INTO NORTHERN PERU. THEY CAN
EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN THE REGION. ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR...ONSHORE WESTERLY SHORE
WITH LONG FETCH IS CONVERGING MOISTURE ALONG THE REGION AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WESTERN COLOMBIA IS FORECAST
25-50MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 60-125MM. NORTHERWESTERN ECUADOR CAN
EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH A RISK OF MCS
FORMATION. ON THURSDAY...WESTERN COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH AMOUNTS
20-40MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 50-100MM ARE EXPECTED. CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN EXPECT FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. IN
CENTRAL COLOMBIA...VENEZUELA...RORAIMA AND NORTHWESTERN PARA IN
BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
NONE
ACOSTA/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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