649
FXCA20 KWBC 271912
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
211 PM EST WED DEC 27 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 27 DEC 2023 AT 1830 UTC: A DEEP MID TO UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO CENTRAL MEXICO
AND INTO EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN MEXICO. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO IS FAVORING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND ASCENT FOR
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
INTO NORTHERN VERACRUZ. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...JUST NORTH OF CUBA...AND INTO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THROUGH TABASCO...CHIAPAS...AND OAXACA WILL BE FAVORING
PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. VERACRUZ...YUCATAN...AND QUINTANA ROO
CAN EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. WESTERN CUBA CAN
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-45MM WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. ON THURSDAY...THE FRONTS PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...AND INTO NORTH
HONDURAS/CENTRAL GUATEMALA. ONSHORE FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING...WITH INCREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER BELIZE...NORTH
HONDURAS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GUATEMALA CAN EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS CAN
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF
SQUALLY WEATHER. WEST-CENTRAL CUBA CAN EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...HONDURAS...SOUTH-CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND
CENTRAL CUBA ARE FORECAST AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON FRIDAY EVENING...INCREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE
REGION AND ASCENT FROM THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WILL FAVOR MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EASTERN VERACRUZ WILL FAVOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH LOCAL MAXIMA OF
35-70MM. THE CAYMAN ISLANDS CAN EXPECT 15-20MM AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION
AND AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED. SIMILAR AMOUNTS
AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BELIZE AND NORTHERN HONDURAS.
SOUTH-CENTRAL BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER. CENTRAL CUBA CAN EXPECT
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
OTHER AREAS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AS A MID TO UPPER RIDGE
IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA AND EXTENDS OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY....LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION EVEN WITH
THE PRESENCE OF A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST
NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER EAST...MORE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN BY SATURDAY. HOWEVER A GENERAL DRY TREND
IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...DEEP CONVECTION IS FAVORED FROM
INCREASED ASCENT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN THE ELONGATED BOLIVIAN HIGH OVER CENTRAL SOUTH AMERICA AND
UPPER TROUGHS OVER NORTHERN BRASIL AND SOUTHERN COLOMBIA ON
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW INTO WESTERN COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR WILL FAVOR
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY BY FRIDAY EVENING AS
DRYER NORTHERLY TRADES IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE INTRODUCED IN
NORTHERN VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...AND PANAMA. ON WEDNESDAY...WESTERN
COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT 25-50MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA OF 60-125MM. WESTERN
ECUADOR COULD SEE 15-20MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH RISK
OF MCS FORMATION. AMAZONAS-BRASIL AND SOUTHERN COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA
ARE FORECAST 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. COLOMBIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VENEZUELA...EASTERN ECUADOR...AND PARA-BRASIL ARE FORECAST
A GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW OVER
WESTERN COLOMBIA CONTINUES OF THURSDAY...WHERE EXPECT 20-40MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN
BRASIL...WEST-CENTRAL COLOMBIA...AND CENTRAL ECUADOR CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA 20-45MM. ON FRIDAY...WESTERN COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. CENTRAL PARA-BRASIL IS
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. CENTRAL COLOMBIA...AND ECUADOR ARE
FORECAST 10-25MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
NONE
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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