929
FXCA20 KWBC 281250
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
750 AM EST THU DEC 28 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI DEC 28/12UTC:
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY OVER PR/USVI.
ISOLATED SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PR AND THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
COULD OBSERVE RAINFALL TOTALS SURPASSING A QUARTER OF AN INCH
TODAY...BUT LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN PR AND THE
USVI. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO HAVE EVEN LESS
RAIN...WITH DAILY RAINFALL MAXIMA OF ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS...GENERALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PR AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
PR...BUT SUNDAY COULD HAVE SOME RAIN ACROSS A MORE GENERALIZED
AREA OF PR...THOUGH STILL UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH AT MOST. NO
RAIN TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN DUE TO BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS IS FORECAST FOR THE USVI FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MONDAY COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH NEAR A HALF
AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN PR. OUT OF THE NEXT 5
DAYS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...TODAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE DAYS WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
THERE IS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT WILL
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AND REACH THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC BY LATE
FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE PRESENT IN THE
ATLANTIC...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC
THAT IS ELONGATING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST...AND ONE THAT IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. REACHING THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE RELATIVELY LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CAUSING AN
INCREASE IN THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE COULD ALSO PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND GET
VERY CLOSE TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WHICH WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF PR AND IS THE MAIN REASON FOR
THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN PR AND OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF PR ON MONDAY. THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
PROMOTE A STABLE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A STRONG
INVERSION NEAR 900 - 850 MB IS STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS 0.75 TO 1.0 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGE IN NORTHEAST
PR...WITH NEAR 0.50 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN PR AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA ARE FORECAST NEAR
OR UNDER 0.25 INCHES OVER THE 5-DAY PERIOD.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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