514
FXCA20 KWBC 281928
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 PM EST THU DEC 28 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 28 DEC 2023 AT 1830 UTC: A DEEP UPPER TO MID
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES REACHES THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO MEXICO. IT EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
BASIN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE TROUGH IS
ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...AND INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF MEXICO ON
THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE MOVING OVER
THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS...BRINGING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND FAVORING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
CONTINUES MOVING EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...FAVORING PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND
HISPANIOLA BY SATURDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS CAN
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-45MM AND A SLIGHT RISK OF
SQUALLY WEATHER. SOUTHERN BELIZE...EAST-CENTRAL GUATEMALA...AND
NORTHERN HONDURAS ARE FORECAST 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
WESTERN CUBA...QUINTANA ROO...CAMPECHE...NORTHERN BELIZE...AND
NORTHERN GUATEMALA ARE FORECAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
AND PRECIPITATION OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR VERACRUZ...HONDURAS...CENTRAL CUBA...AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE
VERACRUZ AND THE GOLFO DE HONDURAS REGIONS WILL FAVOR MODERATE
PRECIPITATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER. WESTERN CUBA CAN EXPECT A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN
CUBA...HAITI...AND JAMAICA CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS. ON SATURDAY...DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE PASSING OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER
MOST OF THE REGION. SOUTHERN VERACRUZ COULD EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. MOISTURE CONVERGE OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS
FROM NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVEL WILL FAVOR 25-50MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMA OF 60-125MM. CENTRAL CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
EASTERN HONDURAS CAN EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HAITI ARE FORECAST 05-10MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED IN BELIZE...CENTRAL
GUATEMALA...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND
CAICOS.
OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BASIN...INTO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...AND NORTH INTO EASTERN
BAHAMAS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ASSISTING WITH DRIER CONDITIONS OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS A TRADE WIND CAP AT AROUND 850 HPA IS
LOCATED ABOVE HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
IN ADDITION...LOWER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE REGION
IS NOT FAVORING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE
PERIPHERY OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN
BRASIL...COLOMBIA...AND NORTHERN PERU IS FAVORING DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE REGION ON THURSDAY. IN THE CENTRAL WESTERN SHORE OF
COLOMBIA...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
ARE FAVORING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION. BY SATURDAY...DRYER NORTHERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...AND
PERU...DECREASING AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. ON THURSDAY...WESTERN
COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT 20-40MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 50-100MM.
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...SOUTH COLOMBIA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST PERU ARE
FORECAST 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. CENTRAL
COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...AND NORTH PERU ARE FORECAST 10-15MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON FRIDAY...WESTERN COLOMBIA
BEGINS TO SEE A DECREASE IN FAVORABLE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...HOWEVER MODERATE AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA
OF 40-80MM ARE EXPECTED. EASTERN AMAZONAS-BRASIL AND WESTERN PARA
ARE FORECAST 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OD 30-60MM. FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...TO CENTRAL ECUADOR...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...EASTERN AMAZONAS-BRASIL AND WESTERN PARA
ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 35-70MM AS UPPER DIVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE BOLIVIAN HIGH. SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE
REGION AND MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
NONE
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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