709
FXCA20 KWBC 291652
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1151 AM EST FRI DEC 29 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 29 DEC 2023 AT 1630 UTC: THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE
ON TUESDAY JANUARY 02 2024.
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD OVER MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. IT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE AREA OF STRONG
DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE GOLFO DE HONDURAS REGION...WHERE DEEP CONVECTION
AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL CONTRIBUTE WITH THE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN AFOREMENTIONED
REGIONS...AS WELL AS...THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. BY SUNDAY...THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER
CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AND MOVING EASTWARD. WHILE OVER MEXICO AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA A MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ALOFT...AND
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL FAVOR DRIER
CONDITIONS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY
OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...EAST OF JAMAICA...AND ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF NICARAGUA BRINGING HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THESE AREAS.
ON FRIDAY...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...AS WELL AS...SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ CAN EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS CAN EXPECT HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A
SLIGHT RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER...WITH AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. WESTERN CUBA IS FORECAST 10-15MM/DAY AND A
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. OVER WEST-CENTRAL CUBA...THE
BAHAMAS...JAMAICA...AND HAITI...EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...NORTHERN HONDURAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
INCREASED AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE GOLFO DE HONDURAS
AND WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST...FAVORING HEAVY PRECIPITATION OF
25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 60-125MM. THE PASSING OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WILL FAVOR
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. EASTERN HONDURAS AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST NICARAGUA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. EASTERN
CUBA...HAITI...AND JAMAICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. SIMILAR AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...SOUTHERN
MEXICO...AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ON SUNDAY...MEXICO...THE
BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS...AND CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE DRY
CONDITIONS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC...INTO HISPANIOLA...AND EASTERN NICARAGUA...WHERE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND STRONG WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. EASTERN NICARAGUA CAN EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WHILE NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...AND NORTHEAST
JAMAICA CAN EXPECT LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. BELIZE...AND
NORTHERN HONDURAS...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...ARE
SEEING A RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA...EXTENDING
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...WEST INTO CENTRAL AMERICAN AND
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...AND INTO SOUTHERN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BRASIL. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
INTO THE GUIANAS AND NORTHERN PARA-BRASIL...WHERE DEEP CONVECTION
CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO PANAMA AND
COLOMBIA SHIFTS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AS AN ITCZ LOW DEVELOPS
JUST WEST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA FROM FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY...FAVORING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA
RICA...PANAMA...AND COLOMBIA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE RIDGE MEANDERS OVER THE REGION AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
BY SUNDAY. FROM THE SOUTH...THE BOLIVIAN HIGH IN CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN BRASIL...WHERE THE
PERIPHERY IS FAVORING DIVERGENCE AS IT MEETS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GUIANAS. DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER PARA-BRASIL AND
EASTERN AMAZONAS-BRASIL AND MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN
THIS REGION OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...THE TRADE
WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE COMING FROM A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION OVER VENEZUELA....AND THE GUIANAS...ADVECTING DRY AIR
INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED OVER GUYANA AND SURINAME DUE TO A WEAKENING PREFRONTAL
SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. OTHERWISE....DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY IN
VENEZUELA...AND THE EASTERN GUIANAS. ON FRIDAY...THE PACIFIC
BASINS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA CAN EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM. WESTERN COLOMBIA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST ECUADOR CAN
EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. SOUTHERN
RORAIMA...EASTERN AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AND WESTERN PARA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
ECUADOR...EXPECT 10-25MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION. ON
SATURDAY...SOUTHERN RORAIMA...EASTERN AMAZONAS...AND WESTERN PARA
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. WESTERN COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR CAN
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE FAVORING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN SOUTHEASTERN COSTA RICA
AND NORTH PANAMA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
SUNDAY...PARA-BRASIL AND WESTERN COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. NORTHEAST ECUADOR AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE SOUTHERN
ECUADOR...AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION...EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA TO REMAIN BELOW
25MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
NONE
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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