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FXCA20 KWBC 021247
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
747 AM EST TUE JAN 02 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI JAN 02/12UTC:
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PR/USVI...THOUGH BRIEF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST.
EASTERN PR AND THE USVI WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF BRIEF SHOWERS EACH
DAY BUT THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST...GENERALLY UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH THE OCCASIONAL EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGE AND OTHER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PR. THAT SAID...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A
PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING IN ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH COULD
CAUSE THAT PERIOD TO BE WETTER THAN THE WORKWEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINFALL OR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEK.
A WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MOVE EAST AS A SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC AS IT MOVES EAST...THEN ANOTHER SFC LOW
PRESSURE ENTERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...BUT THE WIND SPEEDS WILL VARY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND TIGHTEN WITH THE PASSING SFC HIGH AND LOW
PRESSURES. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT A WEAK MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THEREAFTER...AND THE 400-700MB MEAN WIND
FLOW SHOWS ANTI-CYCLONIC MEAN WIND FLOW CENTERED IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALSO BE
DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS SETUP
WILL PROMOTE STABILITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TWIN
ALGORITHM SHOWS A POSSIBLE TRADE WIND INVERSION AT AROUND 850 MB
TODAY AND THURSDAY. THE EGDI ALGORITHM DOES NOT INDICATE A
SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS NEAR 0.75 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PR INTO VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...WHILE CENTRAL TO
WESTERN PR IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE NEAR 0.50 INCHES. THE USVI ARE
FORECAST TO OBSERVE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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