283
FXCA20 KWBC 021946
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 PM EST TUE JAN 02 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 02 JAN 2024 AT 1830 UTC: ON TUESDAY THE FORECAST
REGION IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY SEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS. A
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS PRESENT OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO FAVORING DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE AREA...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE USA EXTENDS INTO
NORTHWEST MEXICO...PROVIDING VENTILATION TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS. AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO/VI AND EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. IN THE CARIBBEAN...A
WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO
TURKS AND CAICOS...EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA...AND REACHES JUST EAST
OF NORTHEAST NICARAGUA. THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS ARE FORECAST TO
SEE PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...MODERATE AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS THE MID
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FAVORING A TRADE WIND INVERSION OVER
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AT AROUND 800-850 HPA...LIMITING DEEP
CONVECTION. ON TUESDAY...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHEAST
NICARAGUA CAN EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS CAN EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT MAXIMA TO
REMAIN BELOW 25MM. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS
CONTINUE MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES...AND IN TURN LIMITING
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE REGION DUE TO A TRADE WIND INVERSION. IN
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...SONORA...NORTHERN SINALOA...AND
CHIHUAHUA BY THURSDAY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...HOWEVER HEAVY AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE NOT
EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CAN EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY WITH LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-30MM DUE TO THE PASSING
SHEAR LINE OVER THE ISLANDS. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...WHERE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MAY NOT EXCEED 20MM. ON THURSDAY...SIMILAR
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. EASTERN CUBA...SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/TURKS
AND CAICOS...JAMAICA...NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...NORTHEAST
HONDURAS...EAST NICARAGUA/NORTHERN COSTA RICA...AND THE SOUTHERN
LESSER ANTILLES COULD EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 20MM.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO SEEN IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE TRADE WINDS. IN
ADDITION...A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS IS FAVORING A STRONG TRADE WIND INVERSION...LIMITING
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE REGION. THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH IS LOCATED IN
EXTREME NORTHWEST COLOMBIA AND ENTERS THE PACIFIC
OCEAN...PROVIDING SOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN
COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS HIGHER THAN
50MM...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF COLOMBIA
AND ECUADOR COULD SEE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. ON
TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. NORTHWEST COLOMBIA...AND WEST ECUADOR COULD SEE
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. FROM WESTERN PANAMA...TO
NORTHERN COLOMBIA...SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...AND NORTHERN
PERU...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BRASIL...EXPECT MAXIMA TO REMAIN
BELOW 25MM. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT INTENSIFIES. ON
WEDNESDAY...EXTREME SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA COULD EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...AND WEST ECUADOR COULD SEE 10-15MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WITH THE DECREASE IN FAVORABLE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR. THE
PERIPHERY OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF AMAZONAS-BRASIL AND PARA...WHERE UPPER DIVERGENCE...AND
INTERACTIONS WITH THE ITCZ WILL FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER BRASIL
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOUTHERN PARA AND AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
REGION EXPECT MAXIMA TO REMAIN BELOW 25MM. ON THURSDAY...HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...PARA...AND WESTERN PERU...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA...NORTHWEST ECUADOR...AND
AMAPA-BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
NONE
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page