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FXCA20 KWBC 031234
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
733 AM EST WED JAN 03 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI JAN 03/12UTC:
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...BRIEF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST BUT THE DAILY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN GERNAL...WITH MAX
VALUES OF AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK...WHILE THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO HAVE
MAX VALUES OF UNDER A HALF AN INCH. BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...EASTERN PR WILL HAVE A THE MORE PERSISTENT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THAT SAID...THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
DOES SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN
PR THIS AFTERNOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS THE FORECAST FOR
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR IS ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE...ESPECIALLY AFTER CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY LOW AVAILABLE
MOISTURE EXPECTED TODAY.
A WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
BY LATE TODAY...A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AS IT MOVES EAST. ANOTHER SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT THE
WIND SPEEDS WILL VARY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
AND TIGHTEN WITH THE PASSING SFC HIGH AND LOW PRESSURES. A
PARTICULAR CHANGE IN WIND FLOW MAY BE ON FRIDAY...BECAUSE THE SFC
LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE A COL JUST NORTH OF
OR/USVI...CAUSING VERY LIGHT AND POSIBLY VARIABLE WINDS...BUT THE
WINDS WILL RETURN TO A NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY DIRECTION BY
SATUDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SETUP WILL PROMOTE STABILITY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE EGDI ALGORITHM DOES NOT
SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS MAX VALUES NEAR 0.75 TO
AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PR INTO VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA...WHILE CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE NEAR
0.75 INCHES. THE USVI ARE FORECAST TO OBSERVE BETWEEN 0.25 AND
0.50 INCHES OF RAIN.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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