416
FXCA20 KWBC 031937
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 PM EST WED JAN 03 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 03 JAN 2024 AT 1830 UTC: THE FORECAST REGION IS
SEEING DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE ASSISTED
BY A CONVERGENT MJO PHASE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION...A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR DEEP CONVECTION. OVER MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN...A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED ALOFT. EXCEPT
OVER THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN UNITED STATES...WHERE THE BASE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH IS REACHING SOUTHERN TEXAS AND EXTENDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES...UNDULATING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO
CENTRAL VERACRUZ. IN NORTHWEST MEXICO...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
MOVING OVER THE REGION...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. OVER THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN...TWO SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEMS EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...AND INTO HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS
DEVELOPED AND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE IN THE MID LEVELS...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SOUTH OF HAITI...AND EXTENDS
INTO SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...AND OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. A
PERSISTENT TRADE WIND INVERSION CAP AT AROUND 800/850 HPA OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AMERICA IS NOT
ALLOWING FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA WITH
FAVORABLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE EASTERLY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA.
MAXIMA BELOW 15MM ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
OAXACA/WEST CHIAPAS. ON THURSDAY...A TROUGH OVER JAMAICA AND
EASTERN NICARAGUA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ISOLATED AMOUNTS
LESS THAN 15MM ARE EXPECTED IN HONDURAS...TURKS AND
CAICOS...EASTERN CUBA...NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...EASTERN PANAMA...AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DRIEST DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
FRIDAY...WHERE MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15MM IN EASTERN
NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED...AS THE TRADE WINDS ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. THE
ITCZ IS LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH...OVER AMAZONAS-BRASIL AND
PARA...WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. THIS REGION WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOLIVIAN HIGH
LOCATED IN CENTRAL SOUTH AMERICA...WHERE UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION IN AMAZONAS-BRASIL AND PARA OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...EXTREME WEST COLOMBIA/ECUADOR...AND THE
EASTERN GUIANAS AND AMAPA-BRASIL WILL SEE FAVORABLE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ ACTIVITY...FAVORABLE WINDS...AND
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ALONG THE COASTS FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL ECUADOR EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
20-40MM...WHILE WESTERN COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED IN
CENTRAL AMAZONAS-BRASIL AND PARA. AMAPA AND EASTERN COLOMBIA TO
THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION IN VENEZUELA...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...WESTERN COLOMBIA AND AMAPA CAN EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. NORTHERN
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...AND CENTRAL ECUADOR COULD
SEE GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON FRIDAY...CENTRAL
AMAZONAS-BRASIL AND PARA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
EASTERN AMAPA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. FRENCH
GUIANA...NORTHEAST PARA...AND SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. NORTHWEST ECUADOR AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION
EXPECT MAXIMA TO REMAIN BELOW 20MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
NONE
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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