622
FXUS01 KWBC 040800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST THU JAN 04 2024
VALID 12Z THU JAN 04 2024 - 12Z SAT JAN 06 2024
...SNOW EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
FORECAST FROM TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY WITH
STORM SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE GULF COAST...
...SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL KEEP LOW-ELEVATION/COASTAL
RAIN, INTERIOR WINTRY MIX, AND HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND GREAT
BASIN...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURES AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS FOLLOW AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM
EASTWARD FROM THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE SOUTH AND UP THE EAST
COAST. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY, ENCOURAGING
MOIST GULF RETURN FLOW NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX IN THE COOLER AIR
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN JUAN AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 5-10", LOCALLY HIGHER,
ANTICIPATED. SNOWFALL WILL ALSO BEGIN FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2-4" ARE
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO, SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS, AND THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. ADJACENT AREAS OF KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL
LIKELY SEE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SOME SNOW, WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN IN THE WARM AIR SOUTHEAST OF
THE LOW TRACK ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO, A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP, ORGANIZING AND STRENGTHENING INTO THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM AND TRAVERSING
EASTWARD JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. FURTHER ENHANCED
SOUTHERLY, MOIST FLOW OVERRUNNING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EAST COAST WITH RAINFALL AND WINTER
WEATHER-RELATED IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE CAROLINAS,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS MAY BEGIN
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA WHERE WARM, MOIST AIR BEGINS TO
OVERRIDE AN AREA OF SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
UPSTREAM OVER THE WEST, A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING WILL BRING LOWER
ELEVATION/COASTAL RAIN, HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND A WINTRY
MIX TO INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES AS WELL. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS
OF THE FIRST LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HEAVIER SNOWFALL
IN THE CASCADES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
BE LIMITED, BUT THE MOUNTAIN RANGES IN THE GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES AS WELL AS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES CAN
EXPECT TO SEE BETWEEN 4-8", LOCALLY A FOOT, OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AS
MUCH AS 1-2 FEET.
ELSEWHERE, SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST THURSDAY FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
CLIPPER-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE RUNNING A BIT
BELOW AVERAGE FROM CALIFORNIA EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE COUNTY AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN AND REPEATED FRONTAL
PASSAGES KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. ALTHOUGH WE ARE FULLY INTO
WINTER, PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA AND DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL BY LOCAL STANDARDS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S. IN CONTRAST, HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE
ACTIVE WEATHER.
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