367
FXCA20 KWBC 041236
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
735 AM EST THU JAN 04 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI JAN 04/12UTC:
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
BRIEF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN AND
NORTHERN PR...AS WELL AS THE USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. THE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE ORDER OF
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THE AREAS THAT DOES OBSERVE ANY
RAIN. THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO OBSERVE VERY MODEST AMOUNTS...THOUGH PROBABLY TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH MAX VALUES OF UP TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ADJUSTED AND IT NOW SUGGESTS A
DRIER WEEKEND THAN WAS SUGGESTED PREVIOUSLY. THAT SAID...THE
HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE
HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE RECENTLY...THEREFORE MORE
WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH SHOW MORE MODEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO MORE CONSISTENT WITH
THE EXPECTED AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH BRIEF PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND NORMALLY
RESULTS IN BRIEF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
A SFC LOW WILL MOVE NNE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY...AS A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY ENTERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT THE WIND SPEEDS WILL VARY AS THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND TIGHTEN WITH THE PASSING
SFC HIGH AND LOW PRESSURES. HOWEVER...ON FRIDAY...DUE TO THE SFC
LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE SFC HIGH STARTS TO ENTER
THE ATLANTIC...WILL CAUSE A COL JUST NORTH OF OR/USVI...CAUSING
VERY LIGHT AND POSSIBLY VARIABLE WINDS...BUT THE WINDS WILL RETURN
TO A NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY DIRECTION BY SATURDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SETUP WILL PROMOTE STABILITY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS MAX VALUES NEAR 0.50 TO
0.75 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PR INTO VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA...WHILE CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR...AS WELL AS THE USVI ARE
FORECAST TO OBSERVE NEAR 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page