542
FXCA20 KWBC 041839
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
139 PM EST THU JAN 04 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 04 JAN 2024 AT 1740 UTC: A POTENT MID-UPPER
TROUGH IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS SYSTEM IS
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AND MOIST THAT IT IS PRODUCING SNOWFALL IN
NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA IN MEXICO. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT DRYING. ALSO OF
IMPORTANCE...EXPECT 20-30KT DOWNLOPING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE SIERRA TARAHUMARA IN CHIHUAHUA AND
DURANGO AS THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS MOVES IN. IN TERMS OF SURFACE
FRONTAL POSITIONS...BY THURSDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ACROSS
WEST TEXAS...NORTHWEST COAHUILA...NORTHERN DURANGO...INTO A
FRONTOLIZING BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. BY
FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...NORTH
VERACRUZ. BY SATURDAY EVENING EXPECT THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN LIMITED AMOUNTS
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...EXPECT LITTLE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CENTRAL SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL ON SATURDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORS
MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER 10MM/DAY.
IN THE MID LEVELS...THE SEASONAL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE
CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...WHICH WILL YIELD
TO A DRYING TREND. INITIALLY...THE RIDGE CENTERS ON TWO
HIGHS...ONE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ANOTHER SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
BY SATURDAY EVENING...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CENTER OVER HAITI
BUT EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA WEST
INTO SOUTHEAST MEXICO AND NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. ON THURSDAY...A
SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. IT IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY WHILE WEAKENING...TO
EXTEND ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS BY FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN
DISSIPATE. THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA UNDER 10MM IN THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY...DECREASING AFTER.
ANOTHER FRONT IS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS...INAGUA
AND SOUTHEAST CUBA. THE LINGERING MOIST PLUME WILL FAVOR ISOLATED
MAXIMA UNDER 10MM/DAY IN THESE REGIONS...AS WELL AS MAXIMA OF 15MM
IN JAMAICA ON THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA...EXPECT ISOLATED
SHALLOW CONVECTION AND CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS TO FOCUS IN REGIONS OF
ENHANCED TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE ON A DAILY BASIS...PRIMARILLY
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. MUCH LARGER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...BUT IN THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NORTH OF THE
EQUATOR...EXPECT THE LARGEST ACCUMULATION IN AREAS OF ITCZ
CONVERGENCE IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AND AMAPA-BRASIL. IN SOUTHWEST
COLOMBIA...A REORGANIZATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES ON FRIDAY
WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE FRMO MAXIMA OF 15-30MM TO MAXIMA OF 20-40MM
ON FRIDAY. THIS DECREASES SHARPLY AFTER.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
NONE
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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