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FXCA20 KWBC 051238
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
738 AM EST FRI JAN 05 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI JAN 05/12UTC:
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE THAT OF BRIEF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
EASTERN AND NORTHERN PR AND THE USVI HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF DAILY
SHOWERS. THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH...THOUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A FEW SECTORS OF EASTERN PR MAY OBSERVE BETWEEN
0.10 AND 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN EACH DAY. BUT OVERALL...A SEASONABLE
WEATHER PATTERN WOULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH MODEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THAT BEING SAID...THE
HI-RES MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT SOME RAIN COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ABOUT A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE. THIS IS DUE TO THE LIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH THE
HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE LATELY...SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS BEING FORECAST AFTER CONSIDERING THE AGREEMENT AMONG
THE DIFFERENT HI-RES MODELS...THE EXPECTED SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
AND THE NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE.
A SFC LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
EXPECTED LIGHTS WINDS TODAY...BUT A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TODAY...RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE EAST BY
SATURDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE ARE PRESENT IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...PROMOTING STABILITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS MAX VALUES NEAR 0.50 TO
0.75 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PR INTO VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA...WHILE CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR...AS WELL AS THE USVI ARE
FORECAST TO OBSERVE NEAR 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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