414
FXCA20 KWBC 081241
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
740 AM EST MON JAN 08 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI JAN 08/12UTC:
JUST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...PATCHES
OF MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...CAUSING AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER PATTERN. THE MAX
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WORKWEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH EACH DAY OVER EAST NO NORTHEAST PR WITH
EVEN LESS RAINFALL ELSEWHERE. THAT BEING SAID...A MAX AMOUNT OF
RAIN NEAR 0.35 INCHES IS FORECAST TODAY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
PR...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE COULD BE THE DAY WITH
THE HIGHEST MAX AMOUNT OF RAIN...THOUGH THURSDAY COULD BRING MORE
GENERALIZED RAIN AS A LARGER AREA OF MOISTURE APPROACHES THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS THE GLOBAL MODELS
DISAGREE ENOUGH TO HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE CLOSER OR FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS. REGARDLESS OF THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK...CAUSING THE RAINFALL PATTERN TO BE SIMILAR EACH DAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING NORTHERN TO EASTERN PR AND
THE USVI...WHILE WESTERN PR HAS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST AS ANOTHER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC
FROM THE WEST...KEEPING EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...PROMOTING STABILITY OVER THE AREA AND ENSURING THAT IF
THERE IS ANY CONVECTION IT WOULD BE SHALLOW. THE EGDI ALGORITHM
AGREES...AND IT SUGGEST SHALLOW CONVECTION IF ANY...WHILE THE TWIN
ALGORITHM SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT INVERSION AT AROUND 850MB THROUGH
THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON THURSDAY.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS MAX VALUES NEAR 0.75 TO
1 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PR INTO VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA...WHILE CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR ARE FORECAST MINIMAL
RAINFALL...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE USVI ARE FORECAST TO
OBSERVE NEAR 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page