333
FXUS01 KWBC 081941
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
240 PM EST MON JAN 08 2024
VALID 00Z TUE JAN 09 2024 - 00Z THU JAN 11 2024
...A MAJOR STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS OF EVERY VARIETY ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDWEST, SOUTH AND EASTERN U.S TODAY THROUGH
MID-WEEK...
...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL BRING SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW AND
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES THROUGH
TUESDAY...
A PAIR OF VERY DEEP, DYNAMIC MID-LATITUDE CYCLONES WILL HAVE SOME
WEATHER IMPACTS TO NEARLY ALL PORTIONS OF THE U.S. WITH ALL BUT
ONE U.S. STATE (NORTH DAKOTA) NOT HAVING A WEATHER WARNING, WATCH
OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME. HAZARDS RANGING FROM WINTER
IMPACTS OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL, INCLUDING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS,
FREEZING RAIN AND VERY HIGH WINDS, INDUCING LOW TEMPERATURES AND
ACCOMPANYING WIND CHILLS; AS WELL AS, SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES, SEVERE WINDS AND SOME HAIL;
ADDITIONALLY, WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RIVER AND
FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE KEEP WEATHER AWARE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
ESPECIALLY WHEN TRAVELING TAKING NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS PRIOR TO
LEAVING, CHECKING WEATHER INFORMATION REGULARLY AND HEEDING ANY
WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH EASTERN U.S...
CURRENTLY, THE A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY
DEEPEN ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES THE OZARKS OF MISSOURI TOMORROW
(TUESDAY) BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT IN PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE LOW, VERY STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH NEARLY THE ENTIRE
SOUTHERN U.S, APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST HOISTING HIGH WIND
ADVISORIES WITH SPOTS ALREADY REACHING WARNING CRITERIA, IN AND
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. THE STRONG WINDS HAVE ALSO BROUGHT ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE UP FROM THE WESTERN GULF
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL
TX. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY UNSTABLE DAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION WHERE, SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER (SPC) HAS AND ENHANCED RISK (3 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM
NEAR HOUSTON ACROSS TO EAST OF PANAMA CITY, INDICATING SEVERE
WEATHER CAPABLE OF SEVERE WINDS, SOME HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE, INCLUDING SOME THAT MAY BE CONSIDERED
STRONG/SIGNIFICANT. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE VERY HIGH
RAINFALL RATES THAT MAY INDUCE FLASH FLOODING LOCALLY; AS SUCH,
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MODERATE RISK (3 OF 4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR POTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. BOTH RISK AREAS HAVE
SURROUNDING SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISKS THAT EXTEND FURTHER NORTH IN
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, VERY DRY AIR/LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
STRONG WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN AREA OF
ELEVATED FIRE RISK (1 OF 3) FROM (SPC) ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WHICH ALSO MATCHES A RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS THIS AREA FOR TODAY AS WELL.
NORTH OF THIS LOW, VERY STRONG NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
HEAVY SNOWS HAVE RESULTED IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO,
EASTERN COLORADO, WESTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES TO BE UNDER A BLIZZARD
WARNING CURRENTLY. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8" TO 12" ARE EXPECTED FROM
NEW MEXICO ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS, EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA
TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS OF 15" IN SPOTS,
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING
EXPANDS DOWNSTREAM OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING INTO IOWA, SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND A WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THE
NORTHERN L.P. OF MICHIGAN. AS THE PRECIPIATION STARTS LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, SOME LIGHT BUT IMPACTFUL FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR IN HIGHEST PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FROM
WESTERN NEW YORK, TO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
INTO TUESDAY, THE LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND WARM
AIR HAS SURGED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES FROM THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, VERY STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN GALE WARNINGS AND COASTAL FLOODING,
BUT UNSTABLE AIR WILL RESULT IN A SIMILAR ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS, SOUTHERN GEORGIA,
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA, WITH TORNADOES (POSSIBLY STRONG), SEVERE
WINDS AND HAIL. FASTER STORMS MAY LIMIT RAINFALL TOTALS BUT RATES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THIS
REGION, BUT DEEPER PULL OF MOISTURE OFF THE EASTERN GULF AND THE
RETURN MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NORTHWARD WITH A MODERATE RISK IN THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA, AS
WELL AS A LARGE PORTION OF THE URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR OF NORTHERN
VIRGINAL, EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHEAST NEW
YORK, AND CONNECTICUT FOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH SOIL
MOISTURE CONTENT, DORMANT GROUND CONDITIONS AND EVEN MODERATELY
HIGH (ABOVE NORMAL) RAIN-RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MAY RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS FLOODING WITH RAPID RISES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS WITH ANY SNOW REMAINING ON THE GROUND. RECORD OR NEAR
RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS LIKELY
TO BE LIMITED TO HIGHEST TERRAIN OF ADIRONDACKS, GREEN, WHITE AND
BLUE RANGES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY/WET
SNOW UP TO 6-9" INTO THE TERRAIN IN MAINE, WHERE WINTER STORM
WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED. THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF POWER
OUTAGES ARE BECOMING LIKELY GIVEN THE HIGH WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
TOTALS.
WESTERN U.S....
WHILE A MAJOR STORM IS BREWING EAST, AN EQUALLY DEEP/STRONG
SURFACE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST AS WELL. CURRENTLY
A WARM FRONT IS ON THE DOORSTEP OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON, WITH
LIGHT RAINFALL AND HIGHER ELEVATION FLURRIES ALREADY OVERRUNNING
THE AREA. AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE, STRONG WINDS WITH MODEST
MOISTURE WILL SURGE ASHORE RISING LEVELS OVER 5000' BUT AS THE LOW
DEEPENS, THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PRESS THROUGH AND CRASH SNOW
LEVELS TO BETWEEN 1500-2500' EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS AND HIGH
LEVEL SNOWS WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERATE IMPACTS TO MOST OF THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES IN THE CASCADES EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES OF IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. STRONG WINDS WITH
BLOWING SNOWS AND HIGH SNOW RATES ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE CASCADE, OLYMPIC RANGES. WELL OVER A
FOOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS, WITH MAJOR IMPACTS
EVENTUALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS WELL INTO
TUESDAY. VERY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT BY TUESDAY
AND EVENTUALLY WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, BY WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF THE WEST INCLUDING FURTHER
SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA, UTAH, ARIZONA.
GALLINA
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