779
FXCA20 KWBC 082002
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 PM EST MON JAN 08 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 08 JAN 2024 AT 1900 UTC: THE TROPICAL REGION IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
LIMITED COVERAGE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DUE TO THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE DAILY
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS OF THE CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL
AMERICA AND MEXICO WOULD BE IN THE ORDER OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAX
VALUES GENERALLY UP TO 15-30MM...THOUGH FAIR WEATHER WITH NO RAIN
IS FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID...PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN BRAZIL...NORTHERN
PERU AND ECUADOR...HAS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...CAUSING DAILY
RAINFALL VALUES AROUND 10-20MM/DAY WITH MAX VALUES OF 25-50MM.
ACROSS THE REGION THERE IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE BAHAMAS AND BECOMING A
WARM FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE BAHAMAS AND DETACH FROM THE WARM
FRONT...LEAVING THE COLD FRONT OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL USA INTO NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ATLANTIC...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...AND BECOMING A WARM
FRONT AS IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS WITH EASTERLY WIND FLOW...WHILE A STRONG SFC LOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL USA EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CAUSE
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND TUESDAY...BUT A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AND CAUSE NORTHERLY AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY STABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THEREFORE CAUSING
THE LACK OF DYNAMICS NECESSARY TO PROVOKE STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TROPICAL REGION. THERE IS A MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL BE DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THERE IS A
BRIEF MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...IT IS NOT HAVING ANY IMPACTS ACROSS LAND AREAS IN MEXICO
OR THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALSO BE DOMINATED
BY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL CONTINUE PROMOTING STABILITY
OVER THE AREA. ONE THING TO NOTE...IS THAT ON WEDNESDAY...THERE
WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN CUBA AND NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL HAVE STRONGER WINDS.
THEREFORE...THERE MAY BE SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION
COMBINED WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE. FOR THAT REASON...THE
BEST DAY OVER THE TROPICAL REGION FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON WEDNESDAY OVER WESTERN CUBA AND NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SHY WITH THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MAX VALUES NEAR 25MM OVER CUBA AND EVEN
LESS RAIN OVER NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...A SLOW MOVING EASTERLY WAVE IS
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...BUT THE IMPACT APPEARS TO
BE MINIMAL. THIS EASTERLY WAVE COULD BE NEAR 55W TODAY...61W ON
TUESDAY...AND NEAR 64W ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH OTHER FACTORS TO CAUSE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. PORTIONS OF ECUADOR INTO
NORTHWESTERN PERU ARE FORECAST TO OBSERVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH. PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN BRAZIL COULD ALSO OBSERVE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ALONG
THE ITZC/NET THAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE REST OF
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA ARE EXPECTED TO OBSERVE
MODEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN...MOSTLY IN THE ORDER OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH
MAX VALUES OF 15-30MM.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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