417
FXCA20 KWBC 091232
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
732 AM EST TUE JAN 09 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI JAN 09/12UTC:
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXTENDING TO THE WEST
INTO THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AS IT BECOMES A STATIONARY
FRONT AT AROUND 22N AND WEST OF 65W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND IT COULD BE A SHEAR-LINE TO THE EAST OF
THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. THIS WILL
INFLUENCE THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TODAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY...PEAKING ON THURSDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY DECREASING ONCE AGAIN. THE PEAK MOISTURE ON THURSDAY
COULD HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES...WHICH IS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE GENERAL RAINFALL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THE
MAX RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH EACH DAY OVER EAST NO
NORTHEAST PR...WITH EVEN LESS RAINFALL ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY IS AN EXCEPTION...WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE EXPECTED...NEAR 0.75 INCHES ARE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PR...WITH LESS BUT MORE GENERALIZED RAINFALL
ELSEWHERE.
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TODAY...KEEPING EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...PROMOTING STABILITY OVER THE AREA...ALLOWING ONLY
SHALLOW CONVECTION IF ANY. THE EGDI ALGORITHM CONTINUES TO AGREE
AND ALSO SUGGESTS SHALLOW CONVECTION IF ANY...WHILE THE TWIN
ALGORITHM SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT INVERSION AT AROUND 850MB THROUGH
THE WEEK EXCEPT ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS MAX VALUES NEAR 1.25
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PR.
NEAR 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES FOR VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...AND BETWEEN
0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES FOR THE USVI. THE WESTERN HALF OD PR IS
FORECAST UNDER 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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