710
FXCA20 KWBC 091611
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1111 AM EST TUE JAN 09 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 09 JAN 2024 AT 1600 UTC: ACROSS THE FORECAST
REGION...A SEASONAL DRY TREND IS PRESENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
OVER MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN MEXICO...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. IN THE NORTH...AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHEAST MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY IS SEEING A ZONAL
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...THE MID TO
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE POTENT HIGH
PRESSURE IS FAVORING A TRADE WIND INVERSION CAP OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN AT AROUND 850-800 HPA...CONTINUING TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION.
A COUPLE OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE PRESENT OVER
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN BASIN. ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ARE FAVORING
LIMITED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE BASIN.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS ALSO
LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. ON
TUESDAY...THE SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN US
SEABOARD...CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
EXTENDS INTO VERACRUZ/OAXACA. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO PUERTO RICO/VI AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. BY THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM BECOMES A FRONTAL SHEAR
LINE TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ON
TUESDAY...SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/EAST OAXACA/AND PORTIONS OF
TABASCO/CHIAPAS...CAN EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.
THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS...NORTHWEST CUBA....AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN NORTH AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...AND WEST CUBA. BY THURSDAY...THE WARM PORTION OF THE
FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...AND THE EAST GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
WEST CUBA...EXPECT MAXIMA REMAINING BELOW 15MM. FROM PUERTO
RICO...TO ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
SEASONALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...GIVEN
LIMITED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS TO AREAS OF
ITCZ CONVERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST COLOMBIA/NORTHERN
ECUADOR...ESPECIALLY GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 50-60MM RANGE
AND ENHANCED ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT OF A WELL ORGANIZED BOLIVIAN HIGH/SUBTROPICAL
UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ENHANCED VENTILATION...ALBEIT A LARGE
SCALE UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MJO...HIGHLIGHTING RAINFALL TOTALS LOCALLY. ON TUESDAY EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM FROM CENTRAL ECUADOR INTO SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA. ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT 25-50MM IN THE PACIFIC BASIN OF ECUADOR WHILE IN
SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON THURSDAY EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN ECUADOR AND SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA.
ALSO OF RELEVANCE...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PROPAGATING ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WHILE AN ILL-DEFINED SHEAR LINE HAS
ESTABLISHED FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN
GUYANA...WHERE IT IS ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ON TUESDAY
THE WAVE AND SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN NORTHERN
GUYANA. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN NORTHERN GUYANA
WITH THE SHEAR LINE AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERN VENEZUELA WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE. THE SHEAR LINE IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AFTER...WHILE THE EASTERLY WAVE IS FORECAST
TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHEAST COLOMBIA.
ACOSTA/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page