992
FXUS01 KWBC 092002
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
302 PM EST TUE JAN 09 2024
VALID 00Z WED JAN 10 2024 - 00Z FRI JAN 12 2024
...MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL HAMMER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS, AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST WHILE DANGEROUSLY
COLD TEMPERATURES PLUNGE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. HAS SPAWNED A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER
AND FLASH FLOODING FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST, AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST FLASH FLOOD CHANCES ARE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND FROM NORTHERN/CENTRAL VIRGINIA THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
YORK AND INTO CONNECTICUT TO RHODE ISLAND WHERE THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PRODUCE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH WINDS, AND THERE ARE WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND
WARNINGS IN EFFECT FROM THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND UP THE EAST COAST. STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 55 MPH ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES AND MODERATE
TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD FOR THE SOUTHEAST WITH
A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS REGION WITH AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT, AND STORM
HAZARDS MAY INCLUDE TORNADOES (SOME STRONG), DAMAGING TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS, AND ISOLATED HAIL.
ADDITIONALLY, WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SIDES OF THE SYSTEM WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITH RATES OF 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL SHIFT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THESE SNOW RATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS REACHING 30-40 MPH, MAKING FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE
TO LOW VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. AN ADDITIONAL 4-8 INCHES
OF STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM THE WESTERN SHORES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. HEAVY/WET SNOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SNOW WILL CLING TO TREES AND POWER
LINES, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING
55 MPH, COULD RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES AND SCATTERED TREE DAMAGE.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHEAST. A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH, SO MAINLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THAT EVENT.
MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING IN THE WEST AS A
SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING SNOW TOTALS TO SEVERAL FEET IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 1000-2000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY,
LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR MANY MOUNTAIN PASSES.
HEAVY SNOW EXCEEDING 12 INCHES IS LIKELY FOR MANY OF THE OTHER
HIGHER ELEVATION MOUNTAIN RANGES OF THE WEST, INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, SIERRA NEVADA, AND WASATCH. IN THE GREAT BASIN,
SNOW SQUALLS ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INTENSE BURSTS OF SNOW
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR AND WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WILL LEAD TO
RAPID CHANGES IN VISIBILITY, OCCASIONAL WHITEOUTS, AND POSE
SIGNIFICANT DANGER TO MOTORISTS. THE STORM WILL EMERGE INTO THE
PLAINS BY THURSDAY AND STRENGTHEN. A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY
SOMEWHERE IN THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN STRONG WINDS.
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS WEEK, INITIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPANDING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE NEGATIVE DIGITS OR ONLY REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHILE THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ONLY REACH THE TEENS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE EVEN
LOWER, REACHING AS LOW AS 25-35 BELOW ZERO IN PARTS OF MONTANA
WHERE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA WILL BE A CONCERN IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN, AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD
CAUSE FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN IN AS LITTLE AS 10 MINUTES.
DOLAN
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