624
FXUS01 KWBC 100752
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 AM EST WED JAN 10 2024
VALID 12Z WED JAN 10 2024 - 12Z FRI JAN 12 2024
...STRONG STORM AFFECTS NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE WESTERN U.S. WITH
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
A VERY POTENT MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. IS
SUSTAINING A VERY STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE STRONG
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE PARENT LOW WILL EXIT NEW
ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEAST U.S. IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY, AND NUMEROUS WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICES.
ONE OF THE BIG THINGS MAKING WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE THE HEAVY
RAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
SOUTHERN MAINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NOW
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE, WHERE THE COMBINATION OF 1 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER HIGHLY SATURATED, AND IN SOME CASES SNOW
COVERED GROUND, ALONG WITH SWOLLEN CREEKS AND STREAMS, WILL
ELEVATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THIS REGION. IT WILL
ALSO BE QUITE WINDY ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL, WITH WINDS GUSTING
OVER 50 MPH, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND FOR ELEVATED AREAS
WHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 60 MPH. THEREFORE, HIGH WIND
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MANY AREAS NEAR THE COAST AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST, AND STORM WARNINGS FOR THE OPEN
WATERS. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE INSTANCES OF COASTAL FLOODING WHERE
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW PILES UP WATER INTO RIVERS AND BAYS.
FOR THE WESTERN U.S., THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALSO BE ACTIVE WITH
A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT MOVING INLAND WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW FOR THE
CASCADES AND SIERRA, AND THEN ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RANGES OF
NEVADA, WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING OVER TIME. THIS DISTURBANCE
THEN SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS
BRINGS VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
GOING INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A POTENT ARCTIC FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL HERALD THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON FOR THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH SUBZERO LOWS BECOMING A REALITY FOR MONTANA
AND THE DAKOTAS, AND HIGHS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING AS FAR SOUTH
AS OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY. THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
WELL BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS FRONT AND THE STORM SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MUCH LARGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE INITIAL SET-UP FOR THIS NEXT EVENT IS QUITE SIMILAR
TO THE ONGOING EVENT THAT IS NOW CONCLUDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WITH A COMPARABLE TRACK FOR THE SURFACE LOW, BUT THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IS A GREATER SUPPLY OF ARCTIC AIR NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AS THE LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS, AND A RETURN
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN FOR THE GULF COAST REGION.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY SINCE IT
WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLY IMPACTFUL ONCE AGAIN FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
U.S. ON FRIDAY.
HAMRICK
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