184  
FXCA20 KWBC 101245  
PMDCA  
 
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
745 AM EST WED JAN 10 2024  
 
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI JAN 10/12UTC:  
IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF PROGRESSIVE POLAR TROUGHS IN THE  
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...SEVERAL A SURFACE FRONTS EXTEND IN THE  
REGION. FROM THESE...A FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 20N 45W INTO 21N 65W OR  
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND IS MEANDERING SOUTHWARD SLOWLY.  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE  
FRONT INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO...AND IS HIGILIGHTING TRADE WIND  
SHOWERS ACROSS THE VI AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS  
MORNING. IN THE MID-LEVELS...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERS JUST TO  
THE NORTH OF THE VI. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTING THE TRADE WIND  
CAP...WHICH SITS NEAR 800 HPA ACCORDING TO THE SAN JUAN 00 UTC  
SOUNDING. UNDER THIS ENVIRONMENT...TRADE WIND CONVECTION IS  
LIMITED TO SHALLOW DEVELOPMENT.  
 
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER SOUTHWARD WHILE LOSING  
BAROCLINICITY. MODELS AGREE ON THE FRONTAL MOIST PLUME MOVING INTO  
PUERTO RICO AND THE VI LATE ON THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL FAVOR A  
TRANSIENT INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF TRADE WIND  
SHOWERS. THE ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS AMOUNTS  
INCREASING TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS ABOVE AVERAGE  
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS WILL RESULT ON A PEAK IN  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN EVENING HOURS. A  
RAPID DRYING TREND FOLLOWS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUMMETS TO  
VALUES BELOW THE NORMAL DURING FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD TO FAIR  
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LITTLE PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEKEND.  
 
IN TERMS OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...EXPECT MAXIMA OF  
0.1-0.25 INCHES IN THE VI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO ON  
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN  
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED TRADE WIND  
CONVERGENCE. ACCUMULATIONS PEAK ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY  
FRIDAY...WHEN EXPECT SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES IN THE  
VI...AND MAXIMA OF 0.3-0.5 INCHES IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO. AFTER  
THIS PERIOD...EXPECT VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS CLUSTERING IN EASTERN  
PUERTO RICO ON A DAILY BASIS...WITH MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER 0.1  
INCHES.  
 
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)  
 

 
 
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