184
FXCA20 KWBC 101245
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
745 AM EST WED JAN 10 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI JAN 10/12UTC:
IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF PROGRESSIVE POLAR TROUGHS IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...SEVERAL A SURFACE FRONTS EXTEND IN THE
REGION. FROM THESE...A FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 20N 45W INTO 21N 65W OR
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND IS MEANDERING SOUTHWARD SLOWLY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
FRONT INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO...AND IS HIGILIGHTING TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE VI AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS
MORNING. IN THE MID-LEVELS...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERS JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE VI. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTING THE TRADE WIND
CAP...WHICH SITS NEAR 800 HPA ACCORDING TO THE SAN JUAN 00 UTC
SOUNDING. UNDER THIS ENVIRONMENT...TRADE WIND CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO SHALLOW DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER SOUTHWARD WHILE LOSING
BAROCLINICITY. MODELS AGREE ON THE FRONTAL MOIST PLUME MOVING INTO
PUERTO RICO AND THE VI LATE ON THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL FAVOR A
TRANSIENT INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF TRADE WIND
SHOWERS. THE ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS AMOUNTS
INCREASING TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS WILL RESULT ON A PEAK IN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN EVENING HOURS. A
RAPID DRYING TREND FOLLOWS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUMMETS TO
VALUES BELOW THE NORMAL DURING FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD TO FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LITTLE PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEKEND.
IN TERMS OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
0.1-0.25 INCHES IN THE VI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED TRADE WIND
CONVERGENCE. ACCUMULATIONS PEAK ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...WHEN EXPECT SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES IN THE
VI...AND MAXIMA OF 0.3-0.5 INCHES IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO. AFTER
THIS PERIOD...EXPECT VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS CLUSTERING IN EASTERN
PUERTO RICO ON A DAILY BASIS...WITH MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER 0.1
INCHES.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page