898
FXCA20 KWBC 101703
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1202 PM EST WED JAN 10 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 10 JAN 2024 AT 1700 UTC: IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES...A PROGRESSIVE TRAIN OF AMPLE MID-UPPER TROUGHS AND
RIDGES HAS ESTABLISHED. THIS IS SUSTAINING SEVERAL LONG FETCH
SURFACE FRONTS IN THE FORECAST AREA. ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST CUBA. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER NORTHWARD AND BY THURSDAY EVENING IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA TO THEN
LOSE DEFINITION OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
40-50MM PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME THAT WILL FAVOR LOCALLY MODERATE
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ON BOTH DAYS ACCOMPANIED BY
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM ON BOTH
DAYS...ALTHOUGH A RISK FOR SQUALLY CONVECTION INCREASES ON
THURSDAY.
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHWEST USA IS FORECAST
TO SUSTAIN INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE USA
ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ORGANIZE A SURFACE FRONT THAT IS FORECAST
TO PROPAGATE VERY RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. BY
THURSDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ALONG WEST TEXAS...NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA...SOUTHERN SONORA. BY FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ/SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. INITIALLY/ON THURSDAY...THE FRONT
WILL TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA/NORTHERN SONORA...ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE SUYRFACE
WINDS. NOTE THAT SURFACE WIND SPEEDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
REACHING 35-45KT IN CHIHUAHUA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW IN SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL FAVOR ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM NORTH OF THE CHIVELA PASS.
ANOTHER FRONT EXTENDS JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO/LEEWARD
ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER SOUTHWARD
WHILE LOSING BAROCLINICITY. BY THURSDAY EVENING...EXPECT THE
BOUNDARY BEHAVING AS A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. BY FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT A TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY
AND VERY ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO/EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINING TROUGH
WILL FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES ON
FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT SEASONALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. GIVEN AN INTENSIFICATION OF UPPER CONVERGENT/DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE LARGE SCALE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MJO...THE
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THE LARGEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN REGIONS OF ITCZ CONVERGENCE IN THE PACIFIC
BASIN OF SOUTH AMERICA...PARTICULARLY IN ECUADOR AND SOUTHWEST
COLOMBIA. GIVEN WEAK NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING 50MM...EXPECT MODERATE PRECIPITATION
ON A DAILY BASIS. ON WEDNESDAY THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
IN ECUADOR AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA. ON
THURSDAY THIS INCREASES TO MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN ECUADOR AND NARINO
IN COLOMBIA. ON FRIDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN NORTHWEST
ECUADOR AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA. ALSO IN NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...AN ILL-DEFINED SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL
NORTH ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN GUYANA. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-40MM IN NORTHERN GUYANA. AMOUNTS DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER.
FINALLY...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PROPAGATING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...FROM SOUTHEAST VENEZUELA ON WEDNESDAY TO EASTERN
COLOMBIA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS OF
THIS WAVE ON PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR.
ACOSTA/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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