953
FXUS01 KWBC 110649
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
148 AM EST THU JAN 11 2024
VALID 12Z THU JAN 11 2024 - 12Z SAT JAN 13 2024
...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN, SNOW, AND WIND FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NATION...
...DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PLAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXTREMELY ACTIVE
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. EARLY ON THURSDAY WILL THEN EJECT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INDUCE RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS, LEADING TO ANOTHER
HIGH IMPACT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN HAMMER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, WITH A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE EVENT
EARLIER THIS WEEK.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN FROM ARKANSAS TO MICHIGAN,
DROPPING TO NEAR 975 MB BY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THIS LOW, PARTICULARLY TO THE
NORTHWEST WHERE A MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL MICHIGAN WITH WIDESPREAD
6-12 INCH SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR OF THE MIDWEST,
WITH POTENTIALLY OVER A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO APPEARING MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY EVENING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW, WHERE FAVORABLE
PARAMETERS OF KINEMATICS AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. THIS ALSO
INCLUDES THE THREAT OF TORNADOES ALONG WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN TERMS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL, IT
APPEARS THE OVERALL RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE GENERALLY
LESS THAN WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS WEEK FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST OWING TO THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME AND LIGHTER RAINFALL RATES. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE SOME
AREAS OF 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THAT COULD CAUSE SOME
INSTANCES OF FLOODING ACROSS ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS.
A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE SETTLING SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ACROSS THE PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRUTAL COMPARED TO THE
RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS THAT HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED FOR MUCH OF
THE WINTER SEASON UP TO THIS POINT IN TIME. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FAIL TO REACH ZERO DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF
MONTANA AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY, AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 0S
AND 10S ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA.
THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE LENGTHY IN DURATION AND PERSIST WELL
BEYOND THE END OF THE WEEK.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE ROCKIES WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW
EXPECTED, AND THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE
OREGON AND NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA COASTS, AND THE OREGON
CASCADES, WHERE A FEW FEET OF SNOW IS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY INLAND.
HAMRICK
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