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FXCA20 KWBC 111239
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
738 AM EST THU JAN 11 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI JAN 11/12UTC:
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE RAINIEST DAY
ACROSS PR/USVI...WITH THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR BEING
FORECAST THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN WITH MAX VALUES OVER 0.50
INCHES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE
DRIER...PARTICULARLY DURING THE WEEKEND WHILE SOME MOISTURE
INCREASE IS FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK CAUSING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY. OVERALL...THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF PR ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL EACH DAY
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE THE USVI ARE FORECAST TO HAVE
GENERALLY BRIEF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY BUT LITTLE TO
NO RAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WITH A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO NEAR 1.8
INCHES...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND...PRECIPITABLE
WATER BOTTOMING OUT ON SATURDAY EVENING TO UNDER 1 INCH...THEN
INCREASING INTO THE NORMAL RANGE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
MOISTURE FOR TODAY WILL BE DEEPER INTO THE ATMOSPHERE TOO...THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS...WHILE NO SUCH INCREASE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS FORECAST BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE REST OF THE
5-DAY PERIOD...EVEN FOR THE INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER NEXT
WEEK. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE MOISTURE INCREASE NEXT WEEK WOULD
BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. THE TWIN FORECAST
ALGORITHM INDICATES THAT THERE WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION
TODAY...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION AT AROUND THE 850 MB LEVEL
FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...WEAKENING SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD. THE EGDI ALGORITHM DOES NOT INDICATE ANY PARTICULAR RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS EITHER. THIS COULD BE
BECAUSE THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE...PROMOTING SOME STABILITY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE RAINIEST DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
TODAY...WITH RAINFALL MAXIMA OF AROUND 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PR AND LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRY AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED...THOUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DRIEST DAY AND
UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH IS FORECAST FOR EASTERN PR AND NO RAIN
ELSEWHERE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT THE MAX VALUES OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN PR IS FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 0.25 INCHES AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS ELSEWHERE. THE
5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES FOR
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PR...0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR. THE USVI ARE
FORECAST TO HAVE TOTALS NEAR 0.25 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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