114
FXCA20 KWBC 111726
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1226 PM EST THU JAN 11 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 11 JAN 2024 AT 1730 UTC: A PROGRESSIVE TRAIN OF
AMPLE TROUGHS AND RIDGES CONTINUES PRESENT IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS IS SUSTAINING CYCLOGENESIS IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE USA. BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS...NORTH
CHIHUAHUA AND NORTH SONORA. BY FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT A BOUNDARY
ACROSS WEST FLORIDA...THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTH
VERACRUZ/NORTH OAXACA. BY SATURDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA...JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. INITIALLY/ON THURSDAY...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WILL FAVOR STRONG WINDS AND
ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE. NOTE THAT WINDS IN THE 35-45KT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
SIERRA TARAHUMARA IN CHIHUAHUA AND NORTH DURANGO. ALSO NOTE THAT
VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTH CHIHUAHUA AND
NORTH SONORA. BY FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW IN NORTH
OAXACA/CHIAPAS/SOUTH VERACRUZ WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM. ON SATURDAY EXPECT LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT
GIVEN LIMITED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
ANOTHER FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH ATPANTIC AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY...AND IS FORECAST TO MEANDER
NORTHWARD RAPIDLY AFTER THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ARE APPROACHING
50MM. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER MAXIMA OF 15-30MM WITH
A RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER. IN WEST-CENTRAL CUBA EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15MM.
THE SEASONAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. THIS...COMBINED
WITH INCREASINGLY UPPER CONVERGENT MJO CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE
TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS ALL OF
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.
IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 15N 55W INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM
IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...VI AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY...TO THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. YET...A LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ORGANIZE IN THE TAIL OF THE SHEAR LINE EARLY
ON FRIDAY...AND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES DURING FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM...DECREASING RAPIDLY
AFTER.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN COSTA
RICA ON A DAILY BASIS...TO FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA
OF 15MM. OTHERWISE EXPECT VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. IN NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA...THE MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR
AND IN REGIONS OF ITCZ CONVERGENCE IN THE PACIFIC BASIN OF SOUTH
COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR. ON THURSDAY...ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TRIGGER 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM FROM SOUTH COLOMBIA INTO
NORTHWEST PERU. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM FROM THE EJE CAFETERO AND CHOCO INTO CENTRAL ECUADOR. ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM SOUTHWEST
COLOMBIA INTO NORTHWEST PERU. ELSEWHERE IN ANDEAN AND NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA...EXPECT CONVECTION ON A DAILY BASIS TO FAVOR GENERALLY
05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM...ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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